Small project going about party high stake - Part 1

[TheWorstPlayer]

I dont think he's planning on doing statistical analysis (which will obviously have many many difficulties). I think he's planning on just looking at the big winners and trying to spot trends. For instance: "What is the blind defense standard for these 15 winners against a steal from the CO in a 10 handed game?" and then looking to see if they are all the same or if the bigger winners are looser or tighter or whatever. That seems much more interesting to me, and seems to be what his posts are indicating he'll do. Not multi-factor regression or anything bogus like that which won't work on this type of data set.

[eviljeff]

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as a statistician i must say you absolutely have to take precautions not to corrupt your data set. or at least to check to make sure you are drawing as good of a conclusion that can be drawn from your sample.

i dont have a CLUE as to how this and PT all works but things that need to be double checked are

1) no duplicate HH #s.

2) some proxy variable for avg bb/100 or other determinant of game conditions graphed over time. vpip in a given level etc.

3) seasonality in the data. so graph yoru determinants over time and look at a cross section of years to check to make sure summer isn't better than winter and those who only play in summer are then artificially "bigger winners" than those who only play in the winter etc.

there are tons more im sure but those are 3 that knee-jerk jump to the front of my head.

Barron

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what the hell does "rant" mean?

[gonores]

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this isn't any more unethical than datamining itself. and everyone does that.

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I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic here or not, but considering the fact that you rathole, I'm guessing you're not joking about any of the words in this statement, which makes it hilariously misguided.

- You say dataming and this project are on the same moral plane (though I'm not sure whether you think they are both immoral or amoral). For starters, Party has made it implicitly (and perhaps explicitly) illegal to datamine by not giving people access to HHs of hands in which they did not play. And although illegality doesn't equal immorality, Party is still the mediator between you and your opponents, and as such, gets to set the terms of engagement. This project violates those terms.

- Secondly, it's erroneous to equate datamining to this project as far as morality is concerned. I tried to draw up a decent analogy to this situation, but the best I could come up with is that it's the difference between doing drugs and selling drugs (or, in this case, giving them away). Just because you say they are on the same moral plane doesn't make it true.

- You say "everyone [datamines]" Firstly, you're way wrong on that. Practically every poker player I know does not datamine. Secondly, to imply morality because "everyone does it" is so god-awful wrong that if it weren't for the fact that you are a ratholer, I'd be convinced you were joking.

Other than that, I agree with everything in your post.

[glen]

"Other than that, I agree with everything in your post. "

Ha.

[baronzeus]

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baro-

LOL

i will sell my database to you for 1000 dollars

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i dont need databases from players who i am better than [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Schneids]

The range of responses is really no different than what they received when first beginning the human genome project (or any sort of genetic recombination). Some people were/are apprehensive about what is or isn't overstepping our bounds, and you're basically looking to create a "key" for high stakes poker.

[Keepitsimple]

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The range of responses is really no different than what they received when first beginning the human genome project (or any sort of genetic recombination). Some people were/are apprehensive about what is or isn't overstepping our bounds, and you're basically looking to create a "key" for high stakes poker.

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This isnt really true though. Poker has evolved a lot the last couple of years. The only thing he will find is the average vip/pfr of winning players right now. Which imo isnt that valueable at all since Im sure they play very different based on reads.

[Schneids]

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[ QUOTE ]
The range of responses is really no different than what they received when first beginning the human genome project (or any sort of genetic recombination). Some people were/are apprehensive about what is or isn't overstepping our bounds, and you're basically looking to create a "key" for high stakes poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
This isnt really true though. Poker has evolved a lot the last couple of years. The only thing he will find is the average vip/pfr of winning players right now. Which imo isnt that valueable at all since Im sure they play very different based on reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be willing to wager much more than that can be discovered. If you give me 10M hands at this level and let me look for trends and characteristics in winners, break even players, and losers, I'd bet I could find a lot. You could get very specific about a lot of different aspects of the game.

Mainly, I think most of the biggest winners are playing a very similar style. Maybe we already know mostly what they're doing; but there's definitely things we don't or things that we maybe know but would confirm.

[Keepitsimple]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The range of responses is really no different than what they received when first beginning the human genome project (or any sort of genetic recombination). Some people were/are apprehensive about what is or isn't overstepping our bounds, and you're basically looking to create a "key" for high stakes poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
This isnt really true though. Poker has evolved a lot the last couple of years. The only thing he will find is the average vip/pfr of winning players right now. Which imo isnt that valueable at all since Im sure they play very different based on reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be willing to wager much more than that can be discovered. If you give me 10M hands at this level and let me look for trends and characteristics in winners, break even players, and losers, I'd bet I could find a lot. You could get very specific about a lot of different aspects of the game.

Mainly, I think most of the biggest winners are playing a very similar style. Maybe we already know mostly what they're doing; but there's definitely things we don't or things that we maybe know but would confirm.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that it would be useful but maybe their style thrives on others mistakes. For example imo stealing with 60% of your hands on the button that some do isnt +EV if the other guy defends as he should. Opening with 25% of your hands UTG isnt profitable if the other players 3-bet with the range they should etc.

Btw, Im not argueing against you, just trying to get a discussion going.

[Paluka]

I can't wait to see this huge database and how highly mediocre I am!
I'm also interested in the nianmin #.