NL200 Bluff -- Spew?

[mlagoo]

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I think pushing isn't optimal, I like bluffing the turn though.

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i thought about this. my concern was that he was more likely to call $75 on the turn then a push with KK-JJ, or whatever. i'm not positive that that is the case though.

[NoahSD]

Aight.. let's take your assumption that his 3-betting range is 99+/AK and that he plays all of those hands this way 'til now.

This bluff costs you like $185 to win $98, so ignoring your 2 outs, you need him to fold 63.7% of the time. He's folding 99-KK, which is 30 hands out of 45, which is 66% of hands.

However, I don't like the play. Sometimes, he checks the flop with JJ-KK, and even worse, sometimes he calls a push with those on the turn.

Basically, this is a really slim play and if your read is slightly off, it becomes spew.

[faded]

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in reality, there are very few, if any, made hands i would take this line with, bearing preflop in mind.

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i dont know how smart the average 200nl donk is, but shouldn't this be obvious to anyone with more than one brain cell? i probably call with TT+ here.

[nerdking]

*grunch*

with the reraise and your read you either reraise that flop to see where he's at or you fold to the bet.

As it stands I vote that you spewed like a college coed after a night of kegstands.

I like this play better when the flop is not a two-flush, because I think we get looked up by 99-KK less often.

[Dan Bitel]

I get the impression that it is slightly +EV.

I think he calls with any ace and chucks everything else.

If I'm villain, I check just about 100% of my hands here on the turn vs an unknown (pushing with the odd FD and thats bout it).

So he has worse than aces up often enough to show a profit here.....I think

[mlagoo]

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in reality, there are very few, if any, made hands i would take this line with, bearing preflop in mind.

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i dont know how smart the average 200nl donk is, but shouldn't this be obvious to anyone with more than one brain cell? i probably call with TT+ here.

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you know i hadn't really thought of what he would put me on until the earlier question was posed to me. if i think of him as a "good," thinking player, he really should put me on air. but i think that even most good players would have a hard time calling here with KK. it's just that sort of gross feeling you get when you have KK and an ace flops, where your mind immediately shifts to "alright, how am i gonna dump this." and i've given him a way.

i'm beginning to agree that it's likely a little too thin, particularly at the beginning of a session without any strong reads. noah, my thinking at the time was that the ace on the flop obviously lowers the number of AK and AA combinations out there, but i still wasn't sure if there were few enough that a push was good.

the other tricky part of this hand is the question of whether we think, for a good LAG, AJ/AQ is part of his 3betting range here OOP (and, incidentally, whether it should be), and what implications that has on the way I played the hand (I imagine it makes the play significantly worse).

[Dan Bitel]

calling here in villains spot withh TT is SPEEEWWWWWWW. I'd play a lot of aces like with and obv all 5s

[faded]

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in reality, there are very few, if any, made hands i would take this line with, bearing preflop in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont know how smart the average 200nl donk is, but shouldn't this be obvious to anyone with more than one brain cell? i probably call with TT+ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you know i hadn't really thought of what he would put me on until the earlier question was posed to me. if i think of him as a "good," thinking player, he really should put me on air. but i think that even most good players would have a hard time calling here with KK. it's just that sort of gross feeling you get when you have KK and an ace flops, where your mind immediately shifts to "alright, how am i gonna dump this." and i've given him a way.

i'm beginning to agree that it's likely a little too thin, particularly at the beginning of a session without any strong reads. noah, my thinking at the time was that the ace on the flop obviously lowers the number of AK and AA combinations out there, but i still wasn't sure if there were few enough that a push was good.

the other tricky part of this hand is the question of whether we think, for a good LAG, AJ/AQ is part of his 3betting range here OOP (and, incidentally, whether it should be), and what implications that has on the way I played the hand (I imagine it makes the play significantly worse).

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i think you pretty much summed up why this play is a spew.

that doesn't mean this particular play is always a spew, i just think its a spew in this situation.

[mlagoo]

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calling here in villains spot withh TT is SPEEEWWWWWWW. I'd play a lot of aces like with and obv all 5s

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well i agree that i'd definitely play all 5s like this, but there are very few 5s i would have (65s, maybe, depending on how frisky i was feeling..).

but with most aces i would check through here, hoping to induce a river bluff, and would obviously bet the river if checked to, and depending on the river, might raise. but i think with the pot size/stack sizes, checking through the turn with an ace is usually correct here.