Lost on the Bubble (Yet Again)

[Sherman]

I fold b/c of SNG payout structure. Bubbliing in a true MTT really doesn't cost you much. But bubbling in a SNG does. See HOH v.III

[mornelth]

How did you designate the payouts?... Because this has a very big role in how $EV is calculated by SNGPT...

[CybrPunk]

[ QUOTE ]
How did you designate the payouts?... Because this has a very big role in how $EV is calculated by SNGPT...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true and I realize that the SNGPT output will not be exactly accurate for this situation because of the lack of support for this type of payout structure.

Hopefully someone will come along and feel like doing the actual math involved. If I had more time I would do it. I'm just not that motivated right now.

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How did you designate the payouts?... Because this has a very big role in how $EV is calculated by SNGPT...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true and I realize that the SNGPT output will be completely wacked out and useless for this situation because of the lack of support for this type of payout structure.

Hopefully someone will come along and feel like doing the actual math involved. If I had more time I would do it. I'm just not that motivated right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP...

FYI - you can make up your own payout structure for SNGPT, but it's a [censored]load of work and really difficult for an MTT beyond the FT...

[AceLuby]

Rough Breakout of payout
------------------------
5-20
4-30
3-50
2-75
1-100

W/ our chipstack I'd give the following %'s of likelyhood to place in each one(all rough)

6-35%
5-35%
4-15%
3-8%
2-5%
1-2%

.35*-11+.35*9+.15*19+.08*39+.05*64+.02*89
-3.85+3.15+2.85+3.12+3.2+1.78

=10.25

So based on my very rough calculations our stack is roughly worth 10.25 over what we paid, which is almost exactly 5th place, so squeezing into the $ here is what I would be shooting for. Esp w/ the shorty.

(Disclaimer: I don't know if this makes any sense and is only up there because I am very bored at work)

[d240t]

I'm glad I was able to breathe life back into this thread. I play a lot of 5tbl and 3tbl tourneys, do very well in them, and I'm still torn on this.

OP: What is the payout structure. Also, what are the exact chip stacks?

[ QUOTE ]
You'd have to be sure the original raiser is opening very light here for this to be a good spot to get your chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
(he has been raising with hands like Q4s)

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think I'd call. But far more often, I'd be the LAG in this hand.

[d240t]

Also, Party has these as well. From memory, I think that the payouts are 10X buy in, 8X, 6X, 4X, 2X. This wasn't on Pokerstars site.

I agree, its not like a 1000plyr MTT where 80th pays 1.1X and 4th pays 50X, and 1st pays 200X, but the pay increase is still significant.

[AceLuby]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, Party has these as well. From memory, I think that the payouts are 10X buy in, 8X, 6X, 4X, 2X. This wasn't on Pokerstars site.

I agree, its not like a 1000plyr MTT where 80th pays 1.1X and 4th pays 50X, and 1st pays 200X, but the pay increase is still significant.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is and it isn't. Jumping from 2x to 10x from 5th to 1st is somewhat large. But not in comparison to jumping from 2x to 50x (like in the 180's) which is why we play for top 3 in the bigger fields and play for ITM in SNG's. Am I wrong here that a profitable way to play SNG's, even small MTT SNG's, is to play for high % ITM. Maybe someone from STT could comment.

[Sherman]

I played STTs a ton earlier this year and only hung out in that forum. HOH v.III and several posters in the STT forum will agree you should seriously tighten up your calling range on the bubble (unless your a huge stack vs. a very shorty stack). You need first in vigorish to play here. I'd rather push 23o on the SNG bubble than call A/I quite often.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Rough Breakout of payout
------------------------
5-20
4-30
3-50
2-75
1-100

W/ our chipstack I'd give the following %'s of likelyhood to place in each one(all rough)

6-35%
5-35%
4-15%
3-8%
2-5%
1-2%

.35*-11+.35*9+.15*19+.08*39+.05*64+.02*89
-3.85+3.15+2.85+3.12+3.2+1.78

=10.25

So based on my very rough calculations our stack is roughly worth 10.25 over what we paid, which is almost exactly 5th place, so squeezing into the $ here is what I would be shooting for. Esp w/ the shorty.

(Disclaimer: I don't know if this makes any sense and is only up there because I am very bored at work)

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are the exact payouts:
1st - 100
2nd - 72
3rd - 48
4th - 28
5th - 22


FWIW - Against this range:
22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s

Hero is 55.9% to equity.
Let's assume that winning guarantees us at least 5th

So 55.9% of the time we make $22+
44.1% of the time we make $0.

Let's also assume that if we fold, we will do no better than 5th. $EV of folding = $22- (b/c we could still get 6th). If we figure out what the + is actually = to and the - is actually equal to, we will have an answer. To me it still looks like a fold. We make $12.30 most of the time if we win (probably slightly more, say $15) and make less than $22 (probably $18) if we fold. It would really help if we knew everyone else's stack size though so we could estimate chances of finishing higher than 5th.

Changed win to equity.