Fantasy Football - who to keep?

[wrongarm300]

I voted to keep Fitz. He has so much upside it's insane. Smith had an amazing year last year, but I would be weary (as others have mentioned) of his health. He isn't afraid to go over the middle and take contact, and that usually comes back to haunt eventually.

Gates is an amazing talent, that goes without saying, but with a new QB coming in and no real WR threats, I just don't like his matchups. He has put up some real big numbers, but with Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, and Jason Witten out there, I just don't think TE is that big of a place to keep a player. They just do not see enough action in my view.

Fitz has weapons around him true, Boldin is healthy as a previous poster mentioned, but how long will that last? He gets injured regularly. Edge should take some pressure off the WR's because the Cards actually have a run game now so DEF's won't be able to just play back and stop the pass. And Kurt Warner is still capable and Matt Leinart is extremely accurate, strong arm or not, he'll complete the passes. I take Fitz in a landslide

[LBJ]

Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, and Chris Cooley are all good YOUNG tight ends.

This is the reason that it is between Smith and Fitzgerald, and Gates is out of the picture. Fitzgerald is the winner.

[miketurner]

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What other WRs and TEs are going to be available to draft (i.e. who's not getting kept)?

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I won’t know till draft day. This is my guess, partly based on who they have & partly based on their loyalties & knowledge (or lack thereof)...

1.
LaMont Jordon
Hines Ward
early pick - this is an option we offer. After all teams have had a chance to keep 3, teams that suck can chose to keep 2 and take a “pre-draft” pick instead. This gives guys some hope when their team sucks bad so they want to play again this year. We are all friends and it’s a social thing. We want to have everyone back each year.

2.
Chad Johnson
Willie Parker
Jake Delhomme

3.
Rudi Johnson
Brett Favre (yes, he’s still holding on to the 1990's)
Thomas Jones, Corey Dillon, or an early pick

4.
Edge
Randy Moss
Marvin Harrison

5.
Ronnie Brown
Isaac Bruce
Tom Brady

6.
LT
Cadillac Williams
Carson Palmer, or an early pick if his knee is still jacked.

7.
Clinton Portis
Eli Manning
Jeremy Shockey

8.
Peyton Manning
Tiki Barber
Julius Jones

9.
Shaun Alexander
TO
I don’t know... maybe Trent Green, Jamal Lewis, or Plaxico Burress

10. (Me)
LJ
Steven Jackson
????????????

[SoloAJ]

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I'd love to hear any reason at all that Fitz voters are nuts.

This is a keeper league, the young guys have way more value, and Fitz is a 22 year old WR that was already a Top 5 WR LAST SEASON.

I say Fitzgerald is your guy.

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1. edge
2. edge
3. edge
4. boldin is healthy
5. no o-line
6. edge

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What does Edge matter if they have no o-line? Besides, that is your only reason. They have no O-Line last year and Fitz did well. Also, when Boldin was healthy, Fitz did well.

Weeks 11-17 Boldin had at least 8 catches every game...
Fitzgerald's stats those weeks included 5 TD. Fitzgerald actually had 2 weak performances when Boldin wasn't healthy too...So it is hard to say Boldin being there factors in either way.

[SonnyJay]

If Smith seems healthy and at 100% at draft time, I think he's the clear choice. He has a rapport with his QB and we know they can dominate. I've been a huge Fitzgerald fan since he was a freshman at Pitt and I firmly believe that he'll be one of the greats, but I would much rather go with the guy that I've seen dominate the league. However, if Smith's status is still up in the air on draft day, go with Fitz.

Another option: are you allowed to trade with other teams at this time? If Palmer's knee still looks rough could you try to offer that team Gates/Smith/Fitz and Steven Jackson for LT? They'd then have a keeper list of Gates/Smith/Fitz, Cadillac, and Steven Jackson. Maybe something similar to the team with Shaun Alexander? It may be a longshot considering the way your league handles keepers, but if you're not going to keep them and lose them anyway, you might as well see if you can get an upgrade for them.

-SonnyJay

[bugstud]

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I'd love to hear any reason at all that Fitz voters are nuts.

This is a keeper league, the young guys have way more value, and Fitz is a 22 year old WR that was already a Top 5 WR LAST SEASON.

I say Fitzgerald is your guy.

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1. edge
2. edge
3. edge
4. boldin is healthy
5. no o-line
6. edge

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What does Edge matter if they have no o-line? Besides, that is your only reason. They have no O-Line last year and Fitz did well. Also, when Boldin was healthy, Fitz did well.

Weeks 11-17 Boldin had at least 8 catches every game...
Fitzgerald's stats those weeks included 5 TD. Fitzgerald actually had 2 weak performances when Boldin wasn't healthy too...So it is hard to say Boldin being there factors in either way.

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edge will take a lot more touches than arrington and shipp did

[goph94]

Gates no doubt.

Fantasy football is all about value based drafting - every team in your league is required to start a TE (I assume, I didn't read the entire thread to see if you posted your league starting requirements), so the point differential between Gates and the other likely TE you would end up with vs. the differential between Smith/Fitz and the possible WR you'd end up with is no doubt greater.

Stat projection is only step 1 for Fantasy Football drafts. Maybe I go overboard, but I almost always make the playoffs in my many leagues each year. Before the draft, I make a spreadsheet using the major sites' avg stat projections. Then I separate by position and use a formula to view the point differential for each player over the last player to be started at the position.

Example for WR. If it's a 10 team league and everyone starts 2 WR, that means that 20 WR start each week. So using my projections, I use WR #20 as a baseline, and every other WR in the league is compared to that particular receiver in terms of point differential (could be positive OR negative). So assuming a 10 team league where everyone starts 1 TE and 2 WR, you need to ask yourself, over the course of the season, how many more pts will Gates score over TE #10 vs how many more pts will Smith/Fitz score over WR#20?

Of course, stat projection is a big part of this, but if you can approximate anywhere in the ballpark, you can see Gates' value relative to other players at his position. Additionally, every season there are always 2-3 WRs that have breakout years that if you get lucky to identify early and grab, you're set.

Yes, I'm a fantasy football turbo-nerd, but that's because I win money every year cause most people just pick best player available, regardless of relative value. Plus I have several friends that work at Fanball...

Gates = +EV

[SoloAJ]

I have no idea how you're thinking that Gates vs #10TE will outdo Fitz vs #20 WR. I get TE's low every year because if people dont get Gonzo or Gates they're lost. LJ Smith and Cooley you can get as the 10th TE off the board (last year anyway) and they produce fine.

I'd rather have WR because #20 WR is always in HUGE flux..whereas my "#10" TE is pretty stable (in my experience).

[miketurner]

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If Palmer's knee still looks rough could you try to offer that team Gates/Smith/Fitz and Steven Jackson for LT? They'd then have a keeper list of Gates/Smith/Fitz, Cadillac, and Steven Jackson.

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I tried that exact thing a few months ago when Palmer’s future (this year anyway) looked bleak. He almost did it but changed his mind.

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Maybe something similar to the team with Shaun Alexander?

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lol. Not a chance. That guy handles his players like a used car salesman - Everything he has is gold and your trade in needs a new transmission. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[miketurner]

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I'd love to hear any reason at all that Fitz voters are nuts.

This is a keeper league, the young guys have way more value, and Fitz is a 22 year old WR that was already a Top 5 WR LAST SEASON.

I say Fitzgerald is your guy.

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1. edge
2. edge
3. edge
4. boldin is healthy
5. no o-line
6. edge

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What does Edge matter if they have no o-line? Besides, that is your only reason. They have no O-Line last year and Fitz did well. Also, when Boldin was healthy, Fitz did well.

Weeks 11-17 Boldin had at least 8 catches every game...
Fitzgerald's stats those weeks included 5 TD. Fitzgerald actually had 2 weak performances when Boldin wasn't healthy too...So it is hard to say Boldin being there factors in either way.

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edge will take a lot more touches than arrington and shipp did

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I actually think Edge will help Fitz, not hurt him. Teams will now have to respect the run at least a little. Last year, every defense played nothing but pass and he still had a fantastic year... 3rd highest fantasy WR behind Smith & S. Moss.