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#21
08-01-2006, 11:23 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
Opponent is 72.4/0....
Villian has almost 200BB... I think this is an easy fold. Villian doesn't appear to be a thinking player, however, it looks like he has been winning today. That means he is less likely to be trying to make a crazy play like this with just a 10. A lone duece is definately in his range, and the pot is small. Why would he push here if he didn't think he had the best hand? And, if he is aggressive enough to push the turn with A10, why would he just check call the flop? Why not get it all in when he thinks he is definately ahead, instead of letting you catch? On the other hand, if you are ahead, you don't lose much. And if you are ahead, this villan has a HUGE leak in his game that you can exploit easily. 
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#22
08-01-2006, 11:26 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] call call call call call [/ QUOTE ] yes yes yes yes yes [/ QUOTE ] wtf wtf wtf wtf wtf
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#23
08-01-2006, 11:31 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
[ QUOTE ]
I screwed this up badly and called. He had perfect image he called a 64 dollar raise preflop with ace 3 and cracked ak to get his stack...he has been going all in a lot and I am really pist after I made this call...he flipped 23o I think. [/ QUOTE ] This guy is a thinking player and is doing this deliberately. He is trying to stack the big pairs. I've encountered these people before. Here's how to beat them. 1. Leave the table and wait to re join with him on your right. 2. If he raises pre flop don't re raise him with premium hands just call with position. Don't define your hand. 3. After the above slow play overpairs and TPGK. I know this goes against your instincts but against this player it more profitable than protecting. Don't worry about pricing out draws as you wont get him off them anyway. Most of time he hits nothing and will try bluffing. The bluffs will become more obvious as you observe him. It is ok to let him draw out on a few hands as long as you don't pay out when he does. You grind out profit from him this way. He pays more when he misses than you do when he hits. He misses way more than he hits. 4. Raise your draws as if you have top pair and want him out i.e "Define your hand" even though you have the opposite. He'll call trying to represent the same draw and will be bit in a world of hurt when it hits. Also if the draw misses he folds and you win the pot with nothing. If you play like this against this guy you will own him.
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#24
08-01-2006, 11:36 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
call so fast you beat his chips into the pot....
40 hands of data is NOTHING! - well OK almost nothing. [ QUOTE ] He had perfect image he called a 64 dollar raise preflop with ace 3 and cracked ak to get his stack...he has been going all in a lot [/ QUOTE ] that is what swings it for me. Easy Easy call 7/10 times here he has AT KT or JT and you are cooking on gas. Either way the read you get from this hand will prove very useful and whatever cards he holds he has just revealed to you a HUGE leak that you can pick apart later. If you are not happy to get all your chips in the middle with a reasonable hand like 2 pair you are playing too high. It's a high variance call for sure - but in the long run it's +EV.
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#25
08-01-2006, 11:37 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
[ QUOTE ]
Calling is not low-variance. Sometimes it will be a deuce. But very often this is a scared bet with something like AT or T5. [/ QUOTE ] Seriously, what the [censored]? If there is one thing this guy is not, it is scared. [ QUOTE ] If you call & he has the Deuce, make a note & don't make that mistake again against this opponent. [/ QUOTE ] ARE YOU HONESTLY TELLING ME THAT THIS GUY, WHO JUST MASSIVELY OVERBET ALL-IN INTO A CRAZY SCARE-CARD, HAS A DEUCE/BOAT LESS THAN 1 TIME IN 5!!!??!?! [EDIT: I am dumb - he needs to have 2pr/boat 5.5 out of 10 or less - I still wouldn't call though] AM I LOSING MY FREAKING MIND????? AM I THE ONLY ONE WHO THINKS THIS IS JUST CRAZY?????? 
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#27
08-01-2006, 11:44 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
[ QUOTE ]
You can't possibly put him on a hand as his play makes no sense and he's a moron. You have a good hand. Therefore, call. [/ QUOTE ] This guy presumably doesn't massively overbet all day. A massive overbet IMO does mean at least something from a donk, right? I know we have a good hand, but do you think it will seriously hold up 4 times out of 5!?!? Seriously? [EDITED to say that I am dumb. Needs to hold up 4.5 times out of 10]
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#28
08-01-2006, 11:47 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
[ QUOTE ]
I know we have a good hand, but do you think it will seriously old up 4 times out of 5!?!? Seriously? [/ QUOTE ] No. 50-65% of the time probably.
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#29
08-01-2006, 11:54 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
WHOAHHHHH
NO WONDER I THOUGH I WAS TAKING CRAZY PILLS! I JUST TOTALLY MISSED THE POINT RIGHT THERE I AM SO DUMB BREAKEVEN POINT IS 44% EQUITY THE END
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#30
08-01-2006, 11:55 AM
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Re: KK facing huge overbet
[ QUOTE ]
This guy presumably doesn't massively overbet all day [/ QUOTE ] We don't know anything about our opponent. OP hasn't offered any observation-based reads and our stats are only over 40 hands. We certianly don't know enough to say that he doesn't overbet "all day". Heck, my PAHUD doesn't even turn on until 100 hands, and I still consider that to be an almost useless sample. It could very easily be a scared bet. A bet he hopes isn't called. Not all donks are passive. They are all stupid in thiier own, unique ways. Lots of stupid people would push here with JT. Look at it another way. Suppose he is desperate to get a call. Would he make a gigaantic overbet like this?
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