Variance and dreading the eventual downswing

[AJFenix]

Law, the thing is that every new hand is a new starting point. A "rush" as it would be called is simply when you are playing well, running well, and on the flipside your opponents are losing and therefor not playing their best, meaning your edge over the table is greater and its more likely you will continue doing well in said game. Players can run well above or below their expectation for pretty long stretches of hands. You have to let yourself have your heaters. Address each situation INDIVIDUALLY, and focus on your play in every one of those spots. It all counts, and it all adds up. Don't just look at it as a session, or a streak, everything that goes into it is a component of it. When you stop your session, the game doesn't stop. You make a certain expected amount per hand on average. Worry about putting those hands in rather than what the results of them will be. As you said, in the end it will balance out and you will have your expectation to show for it, given you put the work in.

Gamblers fallacy has already been brought up. Yes, over the LONG RUN your winrate will balance out. The thing is, going into that long run you can have 100k+ stretches below and above expectation. They end up averaging out when given enough of them, but theres definitely room for fluctuation. Also, your winrate should be gradually increasing in any game you play due to your play hopefully improving with analysis and experience, so by the time you actually got anywhere near the "long run" your true winrate at point Z is hopefully much greater than at point A. As far as variance goes, some of the variables that go into it are very subtle and we don't even realize them, and it can definitely play games with your mind when riding on either end of the variance express. I'll leave you with a picture I have bookmarked that helps put things in perspective:

[john kane]

geez that is one sick graph.

all id add is that you should focus on playing every hand optimally. yes you will get runs where you go great and then it all goes falls to pieces (take me; mon-wed 14 buyins up at 1-2nl, thursday 7 buyins down at 2-4nl, saturday drop another 2.5 buyins at 2-4nl but win them back, today up 3.5 buyins at 3-6nl).

by wednesday i knew i was running very hot and things would go badly at some stage, but i didnt care. i record my hourly rate and everytime i play i know if im playing optimally ill be earning this regardless of the cards if i win or lose in the session. only time i worry is when im playing badly, but i never do bar maybe 1 hand a week, so im happy.

just play - think about hourly rate rather than ups and downs.

[sourbeaver]

OP is clearly talking about emotions he is experiencing, which usually have very little to do with logic (I trust everybody has experienced emotions in the past).

It appears the best way to help OP is to illustrate that his thinking is definitely tinted by fear and apprehension of future events that are no more likely to happen now than they were before.

Being in any way mean to OP will not resolve anything, but will rather suggest that the writer of such comments is acting under the influence of emotions himself, leaving logic behind for a brief moment.

As far as OP's concerns, I've experienced those feelings many times over (still do at times) and understand where OP is coming from. Emotions aren't "smart" in the way our logic can be. Communication between the two can be long and scrambled, it's all about getting it started and working our way through. OP has taken the first step, which is the most positive thing in this thread yet.

[astarck]

This site can be your friend.

[sourbeaver]

While I agree that gambler's fallacy applies to this particular situation, I don't think we're being of much help to OP.

Patient: I'm not feeling well.
Doctor: Sounds like you've got a virus, good day then.

[Surf]

Lawloser,

If it helps, think about it this way:

You ran at 8bb/100 for one month, which is above your expected winrate. While you are fearing an inevitable downswing to even it out, your winrate could be just as easily evened out by you running at a consistent 1.5-2bb/100 for a month or so, without ever having a precipitous downswing.

While yves et al may have been a bit curt, they are spot on. Noone is "due" a downswing or an upswing. All we can do is play each hand in the best way possible to maximize our edge, and let the long run do its thing. It's possible that given how you have improved your game you are at this point a 6bb/100 winner and this is just your results finally catching up with your ability...we can't know our winrates so dwelling on it is futile.

I'd recommend sitting and playing a 1-2 hr session where you focus on making the best decision possible without regard to how you are running, to take the emotional edge off of it. If you get 5-outed, don't think about how you might keep losing for a month, instead ask yourself if you played the hand the best way possible..could you have saved any $? Could you have pressed your advantage further while you had the best of it? Etc.

Play well,

Surf

[Lefort]

Keep in mind that luck has no memory. Variance has no memory. Every time you sit down for a session, the cards don't remember how you've been doing, and you have the same chance at having a great session whether you have been "running well" or "running bad". Just play goot.

[XChamp]

[ QUOTE ]


...he will invariably have to lose money to bring his winrate into line. This may come quickly, and it may come slowly, but if 4 is his true winrate, if he plays long enough it WILL happen.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with your post, FeltBelt, is that you are wrong. The OP does not have to lose money to "bring his winrate into line".

If we take a 4PTBB/100 winner, what is his most likely winrate over the next 10k hands? It is 4PTBB/100. If the OP average 4PTBB/100 for the next year or so I guarantee his winrate will be "brought into line" and the entire time he will be winning money. No huge losses have to occur. In fact, those huge losses are unlikely to occur compared to the OP just winning 4PTBB/100 (assuming that is his true winrate).

[Requin]

OP, I think maybe you're stuck on the idea that in the long run luck evens out. But that's not quite true; you're not going to run worse for a bit to even out your recent lucky streak. It's maybe clearer if we say that your luck from this point forward, over a long run, will average out. Any luck that has already happened is permanent, static, and matter how long you run for you will never lose that 'little bit ahead' that you've gained. If that sounds counter to what people say about not caring about a downstreak, well, that's because people should care about those bad streaks. Except we keep on playing because, even though we've been screwed and will never gain what we 'deserve' back, we are still likely to make money in the future.

[junglewarfare]

I don't see why everyone is jumping on the OP, I definitely understand what he is saying. He is not saying "I have run super good, so I am more likely to run bad soon". What he is saying is "I can't keep running good for this long, I am worried about how I will react when some of my winning hands get cracked to tough beats instead of always holding up, because everything has been so easy recently it might be tough to deal with poker being hard again." I feel the same way sometimes, then there rea other times when I wonder if I'm even still a winning player, the end solution is the same as almost every other problem people have with variance, if it was easy to deal with everyone would be a world class player.