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#21
07-27-2006, 10:28 AM
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Re: Flush Draw OOP Makes It On The Turn
What I mean is that your hand is now near transparent.
If you have re-raised so much preflop, what do you mean to represent? And of those hands which you are representing, which of them checks through this flop? By checking the flop I feel you are misrepresenting your preflop raise, and by raising the turn so hard I feel like you are undermining your entire line. I dont feel like there is any deception in your hand, and your actions look strange and weak. 
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#22
07-27-2006, 10:49 AM
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Re: Flush Draw OOP Makes It On The Turn
Grunching for namesake:
Preflop is fine, if you don't always do this. Flop: Why check? I don't comprende, your isolation play worked and I'd be happy to get it in with the LAG on this flop if he reraises your CB. If sb check raises, oh well, dump it. As played you have no idea where you're at. Call turn cr and call river whatever? ...or just do what you did and call. I can see him with just trips...or the nut flush. Still I think you've confused yourself by not repping an overpair by betting the flop. Your line looks transparent to me, so that cr is scary. Thanks for the terminology! --GA
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#24
07-27-2006, 10:56 AM
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Re: Flush Draw OOP Makes It On The Turn
After reading the thread, I think people are overestimating SB's hands based on his stats. He could easily be slowplaying a bare 8. But yeah, this is often a monster too. I'm 50/50 between as played and calling the 8 and then calling down. I'm a calling station though.
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#26
07-27-2006, 11:15 AM
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Re: Flush Draw OOP Makes It On The Turn
[ QUOTE ]
After making it 37 on the turn you should call his push. I think, you will be shown an 8, a smaller flush, or straight enough for a call to be +EV. [/ QUOTE ] What 8 and what straight could possibly be here? T7s calls this preflop? 75s? K8? A8s is the only one I could just about believe but I think its just about impossible for a guy with his stats to have a straight here.
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#27
07-27-2006, 11:29 AM
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Re: Flush Draw OOP Makes It On The Turn
The pot is 123.85 and it's 27.05 to call. So the question is are we good here more than 22% of the time or not? My answer is yes. If my numbers are wrong then sorry I'm tired and going to sleep now.
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#28
07-27-2006, 11:39 AM
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Re: Flush Draw OOP Makes It On The Turn
I don't understand the preflop reraise, but whatever.
flop - bet $10 to pot - you represented a big pair preflop and got lucky and hit a nice flush draw turn - call, you're committed - he may have the boat, or he may have the A of spades, but you can't be certain either way.
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#29
07-27-2006, 01:17 PM
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MY THOUGHTS
OK, here are my thoughts on each action.
Stack sizes: UTG+1: $91.35 The insane LAG ferom my earlier post CO: $54.75 Button: $33.65 SB: $68.90 30/5/0.3 over ~150 hands Grunch: $90.80 Pre-flop: (6 players) Grunch is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $0.85</font>, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, UTG+1 is the insane LAG. He will raise here like this with literally 80% of his hands. He will also CB 100% of the time and in general remain active if he has the lead postflop. He isn't going to do a lot of calling big pots without decent made hands, but he won't always have the nuts. Everyone at this table is playing against UTG+1. This is a typical dynamic when there is a maniac present. The calls from the CO and SB are on a very wide range. They are focused on playing against the maniac, and they will take almost anything that looks good to the flop against him. I have a good hand for this situation, but terrible position. I could fold becasue of my position, but I hate giving up that much value. So the question becomes raise or call. If I call I'm closing the action, so we have a big raised 4-way pot going to the flop. I'm OOP, so unless I absolutely NAIL the flop, I'm going to have to be pretty close to done. Again, a waste of value.. I'd rather take a re-raised flop 2-way or 3-way than this pot 4-way. If I get 2 calls, someone is dead money, so the sky isn't falling. So I decide to raise, and it's a PSR. <font color="#cc0000">Grunch raises to $4.25</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, SB calls. That's pretty close to perfect. Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($13.6, 3 players) SB checks, Wow, good flop. But dangerous. I really doubt that someone has me overflushed, but there could be trips out or straight draws out. The insane LAG will call almost 100% of flop bets -- he starts folding on the turn. So any bet I make here has little FE against any reasonable hand or draw. If someone has total air, I don't mind giving them a card, as my air is better than thiers. I check. Grunch checks, UTG+1 checks. Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($13.6, 3 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $8</font>, Great turn. Scary action. SB either wanted action on the flop or just made something. If he wanted action on the flop, he probably flopped a straight. In which case I'm ahead. If he just made something, he probably either made a straight or an underflush, in which case I'm ahead. If I make a raise here, I think it gets called. I think I'm ahead almost every time. So... <font color="#cc0000">Grunch raises to $37.6</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $64.65</font>, Grunch ... ? Crap. This is a bet that tells me I'm in serious trouble without the nuts. I have to re-evaluate everything I've decided up to this point. Really, in estimating a range for this opponent, this is the bet that matters more than any other. This bet tells me that he has a nut hand - which is a full - and that trumps ever other range I established up to here. I feel like I simply must fold. He certianly doesn't do this without the overflush, unless he is on a bluff. Now my task is to determine how often he needs to be bluffing, and how likely he is bluffing for me to put my chips in here. The opponent is passive, but probably conservative. My image is probably LAG, although not as LAG as the maniac. It's possible, but very very unlikely that he could be snapping me off. Maybe 2% of the time this is a bluff. Now how often does this opponent overvalue his hand? A hand I beat? Well, given this is NL25, frequently. This is much more likely to be the case than him bluffing here. I'm getting about 2:1 on a call. Is he overvaluing an underflush 33% of the time? I don't think so, and I think I should fold...
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