Odds for online poker are not realistic. - Page 3

keikiwai · #21 07-24-2006, 02:55 PM

Set over set. Top set goes broke. Standard. *Yawn*

Matt1975 · #22 07-24-2006, 02:57 PM

Change your name pre-flop. A real Matt wouldn't be such a whiny b'tch.

mak15 · #23 07-24-2006, 03:00 PM

OP,

you aren't good at poker.

yvesaint · #24 07-24-2006, 03:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No, i used to be a winning NL400 player for quite awhile (worked my way up from NL25 and 10k later... i was playing NL400)

Played there for a few months, was doing well, then i got hit with the whammy. everything turned to crap, nothing held up, my won @ showdown was in the high 60s, but i was posting 3-4 losing days a week, as opposed to 1 a week to 10 days before. Nothing changed regarding my play. I had to cash out about half my roll (4.5k) and i dropped down to NL200 again with around 3.7k or something. Played there for awhile, still posting more losing sessions than winning sessions, i was losing more days t han winning, as I was winning a lot of small pots, but every big pot i was losing whether i was a 3-1 4-1 or 10-1 favorite.

this all happened as i switched to RB. I was very weary of what was happening so i switched sites. Still losing money (breaking about even with bonuses tho).

when my bonuses ran out, i started getting whittled away, slowly but surely, i made some donk decisions namely taking a shot at a higher limit, lost to a couple failed bluffs, and a few 8-1 suckouts, and redeposited for the first tie in a year.

from then on i cant seem to win at any limit because im running so ridiculously bad. the swings in my BR were ridiculously large, even playing as super tight as i was (i was something stupid like 12/4/2 at full ring.

i would have 8 Buyin swings semi regularly, always down (because of setup hands or missed draws, or just freakish suckouts) because people were calling anything and everything at NL50/NL100. and after a couple losing weeks, i decided to move back up to 2/4

so i decided i was going to play NL400 underrolled, because i can actually play poker there. well that didn;t go well. .. and i busted... again. redeposited (again), started playing 6max to exploit weaker players and play a bit looser and outplay my opponents more often and force them into making mistakes.

same deal though, i would grind away all day, winning small pots. then get all in for 200+ BB pots as a big favorite on turn/flop, and get outdrawn, and be back to even or negative on the day. that would occur a number of times, and i would be a small winner or a big loser on the day.

i stopped playing 6m last night, and switched back to full ring (with a big deposit bonus/rakeback) -- so i could play a bunch tighter, and wait for nuts/2nd nuts and reduce variance overall-- at NL25 and NL50 after losing the remainder of my roll at NL50 and NL100 in the span of 2 hours as a 5-1, 8-1, 7-1 and 19-1 favorite (4 big hands), and busted... again.

upon resuming play at full ring, i went negatively rather quickly losing 2 all in pots to runner runner, but reclaiming lost $$ that as i got my money in with the villain drawing dead.

today... about the same story. started my 1st 150 hands down 4 buyins as I lost 2 all in pots... one to runner runner, the 2nd to a 2 outer on the river. Reclaimed some of that as i got my money in with quads and flush vs made straight, and picked off a few people's all in bluffs on broken draws.

Yes, I whine. yes im a crybaby. But as far as im concerned, its my god given right to [censored] over the internet, after running ice cold (and having the worst beats/luck of my life) for 2 months straight and being a losing player even at the lowest limits, losing time and time again to the biggest donks on the planet, after being a steady winner for so long, and now not even being able to win at the lowest limits is the most frustrating thing ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

BLAH BLAH BLAH

matt2411 · #25 07-24-2006, 03:03 PM

Again, Why I cant beat microlimits, and why odds just aren't realistic. Not even close to 9-1 this time but 2.5-1 and 4-1. I am now -95 on the day (~3 buyins) with sets. There's nothing i can do about these hands, i make the perfect play and just get outdrawn, thats all.

----------------------------------------
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($34.10)
Button ($42.10)
SB ($55.60)
Hero ($37.75)
UTG ($18.70)
UTG+1 ($20.75)
MP1 ($49.90)
MP2 ($12.25)
MP3 ($18.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 calls $6, CO folds.

Turn: ($18.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $13, UTG+1 calls $12.75 (All-In).

River: ($44.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)
MP2 calls $12.75 (All-In).

Final Pot: $57.25

Results in white below: 
Hero has 5d 5h (three of a kind, fives).
UTG+1 has 7c 6s (straight, seven high).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $44.25. Hero wins $13. 

2nd one was screwed up by the HH converter so i just posted it on pokerhand.org

http://www.pokerhand.org/?424876

nothing i can really do about either of em.

but yeah so far im 1-5 with sets in big pots. 19-1 , 2.5-1, 4-1, and 8-1 favorites respectively. only won i won at showdown with was with KK on an AKx flop, he had AJ, where i was a 19-1 favorite again.

keikiwai · #26 07-24-2006, 03:09 PM

Yeah, OESDs NEVAH get there...

numeri · #27 07-24-2006, 03:09 PM

Matt,

What are you looking for from BBV?

matt2411 · #28 07-24-2006, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
matt, since you obviously have PT or something to track these results, show me definitive proof that over 100K hands, you're W@SD rate is 20-40% with 9-1 or better all the money going in on the flop and i'll pay you whatever your current bankroll is.

[/ QUOTE ]

rofl my roll is at something stupidly low like 250 or something.

however if you know a parsing program for PT where i can search for hands with pots over 150 BBs or so, so i can at least find those hands, and then check it out by hand so its only an hour's worth of work or so, i'll definitely do that

matt2411 · #29 07-24-2006, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Matt,

What are you looking for from BBV?

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely nothing, just ranting my frustration off is all

Stealthy · #30 07-24-2006, 03:17 PM

It is funny that BBV was created largely so that players had a place to vent/brag. Yet every time someone vents in the place designed for it they get shouted down. Strange.