Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise

[kdotsky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you every say this?

LAG is the only profitable style of play?

Players don't go on heaters?

This is a very risky assumption to make without any other information than his stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he doesn't have to be LAG, but I think the prior probability of a person in a $20 180-person mtt with that size stack being a lag is high. Of course, the fact that he hasn't really played for the couple orbits I've been there conflicts with this.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you every say this?

LAG is the only profitable style of play?

Players don't go on heaters?

This is a very risky assumption to make without any other information than his stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without perfect information, we make our best assumptions.

This player has not played for 2 orbits. At least, Hero doesn't think he has. He wasn't even 100% sure about that. But let's assume he's right. That's a factor which says he's tight. But he's got 13k chips by level 4 in a 20/180. Most players who get stacks that big that quickly tend to be loose, otherwise they'd have a hard time accumulating that many chips in the first 45 minutes.

The fact is, we don't have a good read on this guy yet. We have no idea whether he's tight and had a heater, whether he's a loose luckbox that just folded an orbit or two, or whether he's somewhere between.

To me, that's enough information to conclude that OP's original range of 88+/AJ+ is WAY too tight.

[Quanah Parker]

Thank you for putting it in words better than I could.

[rockin]

To both of you that just responded to my post:

I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG. Harrington didn't have all the success he has had with a LAG style, nor Hellmouth etc...

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't poker a game of assumptions and risk?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say poker is a game of wild assumptions. Which gives you more information? The fact that he has big stack. The fact that he hasn't played a hand in the last 2 orbits at a higher level of blinds.

Poker is not really a game of assumptions, it is a game of incomplete information and to fill in the blanks with wild ass guesses is not good. You should be filling in the blanks based on the information you have, such as: his previous actions, his position, the actions of the players that follow him (maybe he noticed they are all tight), hands he has showndown, his bet sizes etc... Assuming anything based on stack size alone is not good.

[seke2]

Rockin,

I disagree with you that Villain's behavior over the last 2 orbits is more valuable information than his having a 8x the starting size stack 45 minutes into a 20/180. Obviously, the fact that he has a large stack doesn't tell us he's necessarily loose, but I would argue the majority of players who do acquire a stack this large this early are loose.

The real question here is whether or not we can widen his range out to ANYTHING wider than 88+, AJ+. We don't need much wider than that for this to be an obvious +EV spot. 2 orbits of not playing doesn't tell me that this guy is a rock. And someone on a massive stack probably SHOULD be raising a much wider range than 88+, AJ+ here.

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
Rockin,

I disagree with you that Villain's behavior over the last 2 orbits is more valuable information than his having a 8x the starting size stack 45 minutes into a 20/180.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may want to rethink this. This is not 45 minutes in.

This could be anywhere from 1:15 minutes in to 1:45 minutes in. If this is 1:30 minutes in then their are approx 50 players left, meaning average stack size is around 4500 to 5000. This stack is not all that big.

[seke2]

Hmm, maybe I'm blanking on my blind levels. What is this, early 2nd hour?

I'd weight the idea that Villain's stack size = loose slightly less in that case, but it's still a factor for me.

Do you actually think this isn't a push, or are you just disagreeing about the read?

[kdotsky]

[ QUOTE ]
Rockin,

I disagree with you that Villain's behavior over the last 2 orbits is more valuable information than his having a 8x the starting size stack 45 minutes into a 20/180. Obviously, the fact that he has a large stack doesn't tell us he's necessarily loose, but I would argue the majority of players who do acquire a stack this large this early are loose.

The real question here is whether or not we can widen his range out to ANYTHING wider than 88+, AJ+. We don't need much wider than that for this to be an obvious +EV spot. 2 orbits of not playing doesn't tell me that this guy is a rock. And someone on a massive stack probably SHOULD be raising a much wider range than 88+, AJ+ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Like I said before, having a big stack doesn't mean he's a lag, but it's much more likely that he is. As for the range I gave, I merely meant to show that it was a close decision even for the tightest possible range he could have.

[AceLuby]

W/ 10 min blinds...

10/20 0-10
15/30 10-20
25/50 20-30
50/100 30-40
75/150 40-50
100/200 50-60
100/200 25 60-70

So they are in the 50-70 min range, say 55 minutes. And, BTW I have played in these and had this big of a stack because I have been catching cards and more importantly, flops. If he's folded the last 2 orbits I would be more inclined to label him as tight for now, until proven otherwise.

[Quanah Parker]

[ QUOTE ]
To both of you that just responded to my post:

I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh so at blinds 200 we're late in the tourney?
Please.
Stop the nit picking.

Rockin', if you advocate a fold, come out and say it and say why.