Tough spot with AA - Page 3

capone0 · #21 07-13-2006, 02:22 PM

Phoenix, you said he's ultra tight. You pulled a gay @ss limp reraise with AA and he still reraised and reraised slightly, therefore he probally has AA here and your probally way ahead. I don't think it's cut and fold by any means. I'm pretty sure it's either a free roll or as bad as a 2 to 1 underdog. If you don't like these spots, push it in preflop. I think your giving way too much away here if you make these folds regularly.

capone0 · #22 07-13-2006, 02:24 PM

Sorry 148 to win 407. Your odds are 2.75 to 1. Your a 35:65 underdog against KK. Odds are your against AA.

Another thing due to your limp-reraising, you shouted out your hand and you got yourself stuck in this spot. Personally I reraise all-in pf or atleast reraise PF. Do you honestly think he folds KK for 1 more reraise? Let's say to 100?

Phoenix1010 · #23 07-13-2006, 02:27 PM

Don't count the money you're throwing in with the total pot. It's around 1.5:1.

Edit: I originally thought it was 1.5 but I went by Capone's numbers and got a different answer. 1.5 is right.

Phoenix1010 · #24 07-13-2006, 02:41 PM

MoM and Capone,

Yes, he hit a miracle flop this time, but pushing because I'm afraid of that would be idiotic. 90% of the time he won't flop a king and I'll trap him for a continuation bet, or I'll bet and he'll push, or we'll both check and I'll catch him for two big bets on the turn and river, or some other scenario where I make more money off him. EV call >> EV push.

Yes, AK/QQ at 5% sounds fair.

I can't say he's 100% to fold KK to a smaller reraise to about 100, but 5 bets is pretty smelly and I think there's a high probability he thinks about it for a minute and mucks. If he doesn't he's folding to my flop push on any non K-high/non monotone flop.

FishSticks · #25 07-13-2006, 02:44 PM

If he will call crai with AA, why wouldn't you want to make that move? Yah, you are only 35% against KK, but you are FREEROLLING against AA. Even if he has AA 1 time in 4, the play is +EV.

FishSticks · #26 07-13-2006, 02:49 PM

I think you're risking 158 to win 249, or 1.57:1 - right? That's like 39%, and you're only a 34% dog to if he has KK every time. If has anything other than KK even once in a while here, don't we want to get our money in?

FishSticks · #27 07-13-2006, 02:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have him on AA or KK, you're chopping or losing on that flop, this is the most obvious fold on the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.

[ QUOTE ]
It's also the most obvious all in before the flop on the planet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.

amead · #28 07-13-2006, 03:14 PM

You said it yourself, 90% he's on AA/KK. That's more than enough non-KK possibility to c/r all-in on the flop.

Pushing pre-flop against this opponent is akin to lighting money on fire. Any debate to the contrary can only be construed as "your read was wrong, OP".

Man of Means · #29 07-13-2006, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he will call crai with AA, why wouldn't you want to make that move? Yah, you are only 35% against KK, but you are FREEROLLING against AA. Even if he has AA 1 time in 4, the play is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume: Villain has 1/4 AA; 3/4 KK. He will call all-in.
The 35% equity will have to be verified (he has redraw to FH/Quads) but is an OK estimate since we have the 2 outs to top set.

EV(all-in) = 1/4(.35*(+249) + .65*(0) )
+ 3/4(.35*(+249) + .65*(-158))
= 21.79 - 11.66
= 10.13

However, one point might be that he'd check behind on the flop with AA, so his bet may reveal some information. (i.e. this bet is small enough to encourage a call/action, so the probabilistic weighting might be more than 75% on KK) Also, notice his failure to re-raise all-in preflop giving himself a chance to fold if you push.

Rick305 · #30 07-13-2006, 03:35 PM

[censored] full ring