PS 16, 4 left , second stack pick up AKs

[hra146]

I think Sykes has showed the right direction.

- In case hes a reasonable player he knows what pot odds are + considered the possibility of a counterpush
=> Not gonna fold

- In case hes a weaktight donkey and just likes the cards he raised with (cause he waited sooo goddamn long for them) he wont let you "bluff him off" his hand on the bubble
=> Not gonna fold


At least thats my way of thinking.. show me the light if im wrong

[Kn0wClue]

jesus this is a 16 and he is bigstack and minraised. how is this not a push. please enlighten me on this one because if i am wrong i need to fix this cause i push this all day long. if he had pushed then i would fold but here i push.

[blackize]

Generally I push this too, however at the 16s there are some regulars I will not push this over especially given our stack situation. Of course I have reads that these guys are minraising QQ+ and AK

[Prodigy54321]

i'm very surprised by this situation as well..

if this is indeed shown to be -EV..It's even more -EV due to the fact that having either SB and BB lose chips or one of them going up against the big stack is hugely +EV for us..

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm very surprised by this situation as well..

if this is indeed shown to be -EV..It's even more -EV due to the fact that having either SB and BB lose chips or one of them going up against the big stack is hugely +EV for us..

[/ QUOTE ]

It not more -EV because of the stack sizes. It is -EV only because of the stack sizes.

[Prodigy54321]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm very surprised by this situation as well..

if this is indeed shown to be -EV..It's even more -EV due to the fact that having either SB and BB lose chips or one of them going up against the big stack is hugely +EV for us..

[/ QUOTE ]

It not more -EV because of the stack sizes. It is -EV only because of the stack sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean other than what sngpt would show us..

sngpt doesn't show us that when we fold, our $Equity will msot likely rise higher than what sngpt spit out...either because of the SB and BB folding and thus losing chips to the big stack...or one of them calling(pushing possibly) and thus having a chance to bust...

not to mention that the chance that they do bust goes up as we tighten the big stack's range here..

[EMAC]

FWIW,
ICM: fold:.2949, push he folds:.3279, push and win:.3773
Having CO fold 20% and calling with 9.3% of hands.
We win 60.27% vs. the 9.3% range so
push ev: .3279*.2 + .3773*.8*.6027 = .247499
total ev: .247499 - .2949 = -.0474

The calling/folding ranges might be off but should be close enough to show the math with.

Eric

[snakekilla88]

I can completely see why this can be a -EV push, but usually in this situation even knowing it might not yield a positive EV I tend to push here. I think pushing here is excusable, but not always the best play. Obviously if the short stacks are a lot shorter then its a clear fold.