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#21
06-26-2006, 03:02 PM
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Re: I used a read......correctly??
I'd check behind with a stronger hand or more outs, here I'd just bet/fold the turn. It's not a big pot, if he bluffs it's going to cost him 2bb to win 4bb, it's not like he's getting really good odds on a bluff anyhow.
Anyhow, if he's going to bluff at it a lot, why not just bet, let him check-raise, and call down from there? 
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#23
06-26-2006, 04:42 PM
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Re: I used a read......correctly??
Then bet/fold the turn?
I don't see why checking through and calling a river bet is preferable to *either* bet/fold or bet/call call. Either the hand is strong enough to show down vs. a bluff or it's not. The time when you'd check through is on a board where villain won't call or raise a turn bet with a worse hand, but will possibly bluff the river after a turn check. It also means your hand has showdown value.
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#25
06-26-2006, 07:55 PM
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Re: I used a read......correctly??
Hobbs, if our hand could beat some of his bluffs then I'd be all for checking the turn and calling most rivers but our hand is too weak here for that so I'd rather take my read that he peels light and bet this turn hoping he'll fold his no pair hands.
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#26
06-26-2006, 08:07 PM
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Re: I used a read......correctly??
I would probably do this if I've seen him either:
1. checkraise bluff the turn or 2. bluff bet the river after Hero checks behind the turn already. Otherwise I would just bet because checking behind with QT is going to make the river call pretty marginal anyway. With a good king I'd like the play much more. Here, a turn c/r bluff will sometimes be ahead of Hero anyway so we aren't giving up as much equity as normal by bet/folding.
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#27
06-28-2006, 04:25 PM
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Re: I used a read......correctly??
[ QUOTE ]
I would probably do this if I've seen him either: 1. checkraise bluff the turn or 2. bluff bet the river after Hero checks behind the turn already. Otherwise I would just bet because checking behind with QT is going to make the river call pretty marginal anyway. With a good king I'd like the play much more. Here, a turn c/r bluff will sometimes be ahead of Hero anyway so we aren't giving up as much equity as normal by bet/folding. [/ QUOTE ] i agree.
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#28
06-28-2006, 04:56 PM
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Re: I used a read......correctly??
So I've been thinking about this hand a little more and am now unsure on what a line I like best. I still feel like checking behind on the turn is best, but it si going to be hard to tell without more info on villain like how often we think he check/raises the turn and how often we think he will bluff the river.
I guess my hand wavy argument for checking behind the turn will go like this. The board pairing the ace is bad for us in that it decreases our fold equity. If the turn is a 3 I think a lot of people might fold a 2 or pp less than 77 to a second barrel from us, but once the ace pairs it is less likely for us to have an ace and thus people will be more prone to calling down with any pair. To a less extent the same holds true for king high hands, although these will probably still fold to a bet on the turn, although less of the time then if the ace didn't pair. This leaves the main reason for betting the turn is to get him to fold a 6 outer (which is worth ~0.4bb). Now, he doesn't have a 6 outer that is going to fold all of the time, some % of the time he will c/c with a pair, some % of the time he will c/r with an ace, and some % of the time he will c/r bluff with one of his 6 outers. I'm not sure of a good estimate for the times he has and folds a 6 outer to our turn bet so lets look at 25-50% as being reasonable. What this means that we stand to gain ~0.1-0.2bb by betting the turn (the times he has a 6 outer and folds) and thus is we check behind and pick off a river bluff more than 10-20% of the time then checking behind is the better play. Now we probably need to bump up how much we stand to make on the turn for the times we steal the whole pot by getting him to fold a king high/QJ hand and add in our equity the times villain calls with a pair and we spike a Q/T on the river. Again, hand wavy, maybe villain needs to bluff 20-30% of the time to make checking more profitable. Anyway, I guess it looks pretty close..... *I just read through this and my math is kind of shaky. I'm assuming that we are always calling a river bet so thus we don't need to factor in the pot size here except for determining how much villains 6 outer is worth equity wise.
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#29
06-28-2006, 05:05 PM
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Re: I used a read......correctly??
I don't like raising UTG with QTo 5 handed. 4 handed is ok.
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