AA facing AI - Page 3

Hince · #21 06-21-2006, 05:01 PM

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no, we're getting like 2.5:1

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oops... in that case we need to be good about 1 in 5 right now (if I didn't screw up the math on that too).

I think I fold.

n1nj4.br · #22 06-21-2006, 05:04 PM

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The fact that 4 players saw this flop makes me feel it is more likely someone hit a set and I lay this down.

Does that make sense to anyone else?

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After the action, there is only hero and villian on the hand.

So, like we said, if he can do this with QQ KK, this is an easy call, if he is going to do this with only a set, its a fold.

The fact that 4 players saw flop doesnt change it.

Pokey · #23 06-21-2006, 05:55 PM

KK and QQ *were* in his range, right up until he pulled a check-REraise all-in. Your opponent has a postflop aggression of 0.5 and he just checked and then three-bet for his entire stack on a complete nonsense flop. You are dogmeat damn near always. Save your $81 and get out of the hand.

Basically, you need a much stronger and much more specific read on this villain to justify a call here.

Hince · #24 06-21-2006, 06:19 PM

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KK and QQ *were* in his range, right up until he pulled a check-REraise all-in. Your opponent has a postflop aggression of 0.5 and he just checked and then three-bet for his entire stack on a complete nonsense flop. You are dogmeat damn near always. Save your $81 and get out of the hand.

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Not to mention he pulled this move with a bet and a raise in front of him. I agree with you, I think we have 2 outs almost always.

gd_river · #25 06-21-2006, 06:29 PM

haven't read any responses but this is an insta fold IMO. he doesn't care what anyone has, he just goes AI into everyone else after you show strength.

edit...actually if AI guy is a thinking player then this might not be an insta fold...esp if he had a larger stack and did a normal 3-bet. i doubt this is the case in this hand though.

Mercman572 · #26 06-21-2006, 06:58 PM

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KK and QQ *were* in his range, right up until he pulled a check-REraise all-in.

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Pokey,

This is spot-on, and I was going to make this comment a bit later. If it got checked to me and he pulled this, then maybe he could have KK or QQ.

Dan Bitel · #27 06-21-2006, 07:05 PM

mercman, pokey,

lets say villain DOES have KK/QQ and he flat called preflop and decided to check the flop. How do you think he plays it after the bet and raise? You realise if he has KK, in his eyes he's only losing to AA and is beating 99-QQ?

Pokey · #28 06-21-2006, 07:13 PM

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lets say villain DOES have KK/QQ and he flat called preflop and decided to check the flop. How do you think he plays it after the bet and raise?

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I think he calls. He's a calling station -- it's what they do. I agree that he's unlikely to fold with KK or QQ, but even IF he had one of those hands and he decided for some reason to check-raise, I think hero's raise would slow him down. He'd start seeing monsters under the bed and find a way to check/call all the way down.

This play screams of power to me.

Mercman572 · #29 06-21-2006, 07:15 PM

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mercman, pokey,

lets say villain DOES have KK/QQ and he flat called preflop and decided to check the flop. How do you think he plays it after the bet and raise? You realise if he has KK, in his eyes he's only losing to AA and is beating 99-QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

So I beat one hand he might do this with.

It's interesting to consider the fact that I made a smallish raise so that I would be able to get away if 3-bet, and the fact that I still have a significant amount behind would probably make a more perceptive player more likely to push strong but 2nd best hands.

bilbo-san · #30 06-21-2006, 07:22 PM

All,

Villain's stats are from 35 hands. Please don't use these stats regarding Villain's passivity.

IN most of my sessions, my AF is infinite after 35 hands. Does that mean I NEVER just call?

Again, if you have a small sample size, and the stats deviate largely from the average stats, be more inclined to believe that the statistic errs away from the average.

That is, this villain is much more likely to be of average aggression, but has played somewhat passively in these 35 hands (which would, in fact, be fairly correct vs. the LAG player described in the previous QQ hand), than he is to be a very passive player.

Anyways....

I still think this is a fold after this action, but not because of Villain's AF after 35 hands. It's just hard for me to imagine anyone playing QQ/KK this way, and the only draws on the flop (35 and 56) look pretty unlikely given pre-flop action. And no one goes nuts with 87 or 76 here.