$109 HU

[supercomputer]

Hey Indy, the corporate ass let me out at 3:00 today, how bout you? Damn I wish I was a gangster.

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Indy, the corporate ass let me out at 3:00 today, how bout you? Damn I wish I was a gangster.

[/ QUOTE ]

My boss took a business trip to Brazil for me and I skipped 1/2 a day yesterday and the whole day today so holla big up gansta.

Indy

[Eagles]

Insta push basically what Curtains said calling is terrible here because he is paying you off with so many worse hands does anyone really think he's folding jx to a shove.

[supercomputer]

I know you'd have to be on mescalin to play it like this, but do you fold if you're Villain?

[ryanghall]

This is a routine push.

Ryan

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]

A good tip to remember is taht no one ever has a full house when headsup and with like 300-600 blinds and only one pair on board. Just assume they never have it and youll do just fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not saying I disagree w/u. I just want to drop a little math. Hero says he knows villan has 9x where x is in {2,3,...etc}. There are 44 possible kickers that villan can have and 10 make a boat. So probability of being [censored] by a push is 10/44 = .227. So let's just work out the math. Shouldn't we be able to work this out in tourney $EV=?

Let Y be the gain in $EV from pushing.

Then Y ~ {300 p=.227
476 p=.773
}

where 476=.88(500) +.12(300) a weighted average based on the proportion of chips hero has after winning hand.

So EY= 300*.227 + 500*.773 = +454.6

Now what about just calling? Let Z=gain in $EV from just calling.

Then Z~{337 p=.227
442 p=.773 }

So EZ=418.16

So Mathematically, IF WE ASSUME VILLAN DOESNT HAVE ANY STR8 AND IS EQUAL TO US IN PLAY, then we leave around $36 on the table by calling over pushing. Its not an OBVIOUS push due to other variables but I do see your argument.

Indy

[supercomputer]

It's actually 9/44, leaving out the 9. He doesn't have 99 or he would have pushed pre-flop. So we're about a 4-1 favorite if we want to put the rest of his chips in.

You seem to be hung up on "surviving" this hand at all costs. But it is his survival that is at stake. You leave him with 6,000 chips if you just call.

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]
It's actually 9/44, leaving out the 9. He doesn't have 99 or he would have pushed pre-flop. So we're about a 4-1 favorite if we want to put the rest of his chips in.

You seem to be hung up on "surviving" this hand at all costs. But it is his survival that is at stake. You leave him with 6,000 chips if you just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm not hung up. I actually buy what the others are saying, but I don't buy that calling is RIDICULOUS. You just leave a few bucks lying on the table unless villan is a total donkey.

Indy

[supercomputer]

Using ICM, here is our distribution if we push and win (80%):

47.6 x .8 = 38.1

If we push and lose 30 x .2 = 6

So a total equity of 38.1 + 6 = 44.1 or $441

If we call and win (80%)

43.9 x .8 = 35.1

If we call and lose

33.7 x .2 = 6.7

6.7 + 35.1 = 41.8 or $418

So you lose $23 of the prize money by calling. That's over 10% of what's at stake.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's actually 9/44, leaving out the 9. He doesn't have 99 or he would have pushed pre-flop. So we're about a 4-1 favorite if we want to put the rest of his chips in.

You seem to be hung up on "surviving" this hand at all costs. But it is his survival that is at stake. You leave him with 6,000 chips if you just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm not hung up. I actually buy what the others are saying, but I don't buy that calling is RIDICULOUS. You just leave a few bucks lying on the table unless villan is a total donkey.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

calling is unbelievably bad