Some basic observations and questions about casino whoring - Page 3

Thremp · #21 05-25-2006, 09:33 PM

Thats what I meant... With the hints and the information we gave. Then it should be obvious.

Its not obvious to anyone else. But to be presented with the information and attempt to refute is just bleh... Of course thats what I did when I heard it "No way my low varaince approach can not be optimal EV ARGH!"

Big TR · #22 05-26-2006, 09:31 AM

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Thanks for the reply. So they discuss little mythic creatures on the pay forums? Weirdos. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Oh, I noticed a BJ strategy link on the zoo, read it and followed all of the suggested links. Well thanks to Ed Miller and others my head hurts a LOT but I think I have all my questions answered now.

Thanks again.

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Can somebody post a link to this thread. The search function wasn't friendly to me.

sunnypoker · #23 05-26-2006, 11:27 AM

so what's the verdict?
how much/how many hands are you guys saying we should be betting?

say bonus is 100%, with typical 20x(d+B), u deposit 100, bonus 100, WR 4000

how much will u bet?

what about for cryptos where WR is 25x, how much will u bet?

also, for casinos like crypto where u can cash out your original deposit before finishing requirements,
is it a good idea to bet all of the deposit on the first hand and try to double up? (assuming bonus is up front, which i think it is).

Thremp · #24 05-26-2006, 01:07 PM

25 a hand is my usual.

I never bet my entire roll on any hand (Unless I have one bet left). This increases the HA by a lot.

Ed Miller · #25 05-26-2006, 04:45 PM

Here's the quick and dirty:

Bonus EV = Size of bonus - Average loss from playing

Size of bonus is fixed. Average loss from playing is also fixed IF you always meet your wagering requirement.

When you bust completely, however, you don't need to fulfill the wagering requirement, because there's nothing to withdraw.

Take two strategies.

Strategy 1. Bonus is $1,000. You're playing $1 a hand whatever, house edge is 1%, and you have to wager $10,000 to clear. Your bets are small enough that you expect to go broke basically never. Total bonus EV is:

EV = $1000 - ($10,000)(0.01) = $900

Strategy 2. $1,000 bonus. Wagering requirement is $10,000, house edge is 1%. First hand, you make one $1,000 bet. If you win (49.5% of the time) you make $1 bets until the WR is completed. If you lose, you're broke, and you try another casino.

Now your EV is:

EV = $1000 + [(0.505)(-$1000) + (0.495)($1000)] - (0.495)($9000)(0.01) = $1000 - $10 - $44.55 = $945.45 > $900

The term inside the brackets is your EV on the initial bet. The final term is your EV on all your future $1 bets as you finish your $9,000 of wagering requirement.

Yaboosh · #26 05-26-2006, 06:38 PM

So you are saying that I don't know what I am talking about and had bad information?

You know, if I weren't so used to being wrong, this might be harder to take, hehehe.

Ed Miller · #27 05-26-2006, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So you are saying that I don't know what I am talking about and had bad information?

You know, if I weren't so used to being wrong, this might be harder to take, hehehe.

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It's a little bit tricky of an idea. The "normal" thinking would be what you said. It's just the option to go bust and never finish your WR that changes things.

rakemeplz · #28 05-27-2006, 01:48 AM

I hope this hasn't been explained cuz I haven't read the full thread as of yet.

I dont care for the math but when you go bust you get full advantage of the bonus but pay the house an extremely limited amount if you bust quickly whereas if you fullfill the wagering requirement. In certain bonuses are considered "-EV" where the WR and HA mean you'll end up losing money.

However if you bet the whole shebang on roulette for example you'll have sacrificed some EV but increased the bonus size significantly, your new total dwarfing the now insignificant wagering requirement. Or of course you could bet higher amounts on blackjack increasing your risks of going bust or building your total to a large amount which makes the house advantage/wagering requirement more insignificant in comparison...

Anyways these are just my initial thoughts (slightly modified) when first coming across casino bonuses...

midwestkc · #29 05-27-2006, 08:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you are saying that I don't know what I am talking about and had bad information?

You know, if I weren't so used to being wrong, this might be harder to take, hehehe.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a little bit tricky of an idea. The "normal" thinking would be what you said. It's just the option to go bust and never finish your WR that changes things.

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So, on say, the crypto bonuses that you can cash out your deposit if you lose the bonus regardless of whether you finished the WR, what would be the best strategy? It seems like making bigger bets again would be better, but since the WR for the monthly bonus carry over, would this still be the case? What if you bust a few months in a row (leading to exceedingly higher WR)?

Ed Miller · #30 06-04-2006, 06:12 AM

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So, on say, the crypto bonuses that you can cash out your deposit if you lose the bonus regardless of whether you finished the WR, what would be the best strategy? It seems like making bigger bets again would be better, but since the WR for the monthly bonus carry over, would this still be the case? What if you bust a few months in a row (leading to exceedingly higher WR)?

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If the WR carries over month to month AND you plan to play the bonus again and again indefinitely, then your expectation is basically the same no matter how you bet.

Making big bets is almost certainly more fun, though.

BTW, carrying over WR from bonus to bonus seems severely stupid from the casino's perspective. Why would they want to risk their regular suckers getting so stuck that they feel like the next bonus has no shot to get them unstuck?