10/20 sets are maybe not so great - Page 3

edge · #21 04-30-2006, 04:04 PM

If I check and he checks behind and the board pairs (without giving me quads), is it game over for sure? I definitely wouldn't put it past him to check behind a set or AK in this spot.

ggbman · #22 04-30-2006, 05:24 PM

Ray,

What do you think he calls with?

edge · #23 04-30-2006, 05:39 PM

If I push, I think the only hands I beat that will call are AK and TT, and both of those could be a fold too. It's possible that I could knock out KK, but I'm not too sure about that one. Obviously a push works as a blocker to avoid getting drawn out on by Axc or AK.

#24 04-30-2006, 06:45 PM

i like check with intention to call a push and push any river if he checks behind.

Maulik · #25 04-30-2006, 07:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I check and he checks behind and the board pairs (without giving me quads), is it game over for sure? I definitely wouldn't put it past him to check behind a set or AK in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The money needs to get in so if you aren't doing it on the turn I agree with grim push the river.

Lucky · #26 04-30-2006, 08:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you check and he checks behind, what is your river plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

he should push the river. He wanted the money in anyway, now villain may think his check behind induced this play from hero.

Ray Zee · #27 04-30-2006, 08:18 PM

ggbman,
i dont know what he calls with it wasnt given. but some hands he beats and maybe the guy folds some hands he cant beat by betting. who knows. you just have to take the risk. plus i could swear i saw a flush draw out there. and giving a free card to it isnt my greatest pleasure.
if you know the player to be the kind to try and bluff here very frequently in these spots and you will call then it could be much better to check call. but remember you wont be happy if the board makes a straight on the end and you split- or if he hits a flush for free -or if he had a hand that he would call with and you dont get to get all in. all that is a bigger mistake than betting and him having a jack and you not drawing out.

ggbman · #28 04-30-2006, 09:31 PM

Ray,

The Qc and the Tc are out there. IMO a flush draw should be HEAVILY discounted here because of this prflop action. The only hands tha are likely to have a flush draw and call the re-raise preflop are AK-AJs. Obviously other hands will call sometimes, i'm just saying that should be dsicounted. Basically, i don't see KKK or AAA folding. I think other sets would have pushed the flop, as would top pair+nut flush draw. I really think worse hands just about never call here, or play the hand this way. Maybe you will see AK or TTT sometimes, just not that often.

As i am typing this, i am wondering how much showdown value we really have, even with the pot size. This is a super tough spot.

BSman77 · #29 04-30-2006, 10:06 PM

hmmm... ur opponent only needs a jack for a str8... u can't go all in because he will only call u with a jack in which case ur a big underdog... check or may be commit 800 here. that way u r drawing correctly to make a full house if he puts u all in for the last 800 ( u'll be getting 4000:800 odds not too bad). makes sense?

GTL · #30 05-01-2006, 12:23 AM

I dont like the idea of putting a small bet out there if the only purpose is to give you the correct odds to draw to a boat when villain pushes. Like I said in my earlier posts i think this spot is insanely tough with the pot size and stack sizes. You aren't getting rid of any better hands by betting here.