Big Pot River Decision

[mitchman]

Hey Kevin,
Folding preflop 100% of the time is too nitty. I prolly call too!

Flop, you should jam it.

The turn you seem to be spewing.

River, I muck too.

I just don't like how you played the flop and turn; you may have failed to put the bets in on the flop when you were good and then put in too much action when you were beat on the turn.

Seems like you need to be a little more careful, these guys do have a point about the call preflop, which is why you were in a tough spot anyway.

As for you playing better (and/or thinking you do) than the the CO and Button, I would be careful that that doesn't lead to costly mistakes. Cause basically against the typical lineup you will almost always be #1 and sometimes #2 and rarely the 3rd best in the game.

Anyway, I make the same excuse sometimes too, but I still call preflop unless it's one the the guys is tight like Greek John. I even call if its Byrne and Yani, but that is likely a mistake.
Dave

[Crusher19]

played alot with kevin not you emerson

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think anybody said you'd win the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks dcifrths. Actually I was the one thinking I had cost myself the pot by not 3-betting the flop and letting the CO pick up a draw on the turn.

Again, not to be results orientated, but I think my 7.5 to 1 implied odds were there for this hand! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[HOWMANY]

Deuces would have to be really hot for me to call here preflop.

[Kevin J]

Thanks for the response Crusher (whoever you are)?

If you've played alot with me, then you know I'm 3-betting that flop like 98 times out of 100 with a flopped set as well. But I thought this situation was a little unique. I KNOW the button has an overpair, but the only way to find out what CO has is to cold-call and see what he does. As it turned out, I found out he couldn't have KK. Had the boared paired on the river, I'd have gotten in a sick c/r that would've sent him through the roof! He HAS to bet his flush, since it's almost certainly the nuts and I played my hand like a flush.

So I smooth called for the sake of defining the cutoff's hand (the more competent of my two opponents), which I did accomplish along with disguising my own hand. Unfortunately, I lost anyway. -lol

[sweetjazz]

Wow, this hand is a debacle. Preflop is a fold and it's not close. Your equity doesn't mean squat because every flop without a 2 is bad for you.

Okay, but you lucked out and got a decent flop for your hand. (Obviously something like A92 or Q62 rainbow would have been better, but at least you hit your set.) Not 3betting this flop is absolutely terrible. There's a good chance that CO has Ax and button has a lower overpair, you absolutely need to 3bet and force CO into a tough spot, since Ax will have tainted outs and CO will not be closing the action. In addition 3betting gets the money in when you are a favorite versus their ranges and defines their hands better for you on for action on future streets.

On the turn, a scare card hits and you end up going 4 bets when your overall equity has now dropped significantly (and it goes down with each additional raise that you face). By not taking the initiative on the flop, you really have no idea what is going on in the hand and you have a tough decision when CO raises your turn bet.

I disagree that you found out anything useful about CO's hand until he put a fourth bet in on the turn, which told you were behind after you had already shoveled a ton of money into the pot.

River is a nasty spot. I guess a hero fold could be right, but I think the call at that point is the least of your worries about this hand.

I suspect you're a much better player than this hand would suggest, but you should really listen to the advice in this thread and avoid outthinking yourself in spots like this.

[Lestat]

You guys are all being way over dramatic. Neither pre-flop or flop is "absolutely terrible". There are better and worse ways to play a set, but you could let a monkey decide what to do and still make money.

I've played higher stakes than this with Kevin enough to know that if he didn't 3 town the flop, he had a specific reason in mind. Might not have been the best reason, but I guarantee he knows 3 betting is the standard play.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are all being way over dramatic. Neither pre-flop or flop is "absolutely terrible". There are better and worse ways to play a set, but you could let a monkey decide what to do and still make money.

I've played higher stakes than this with Kevin enough to know that if he didn't 3 town the flop, he had a specific reason in mind. Might not have been the best reason, but I guarantee he knows 3 betting is the standard play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously any line he takes once he hits his set that doesn't involve making a ridiculously stupid fold will show a profit, but that's irrelevant. What matters is the difference in the EV of the decisions made, not the incindental fact that all of the EVs are positive.

The call preflop is bad and it's a pretty big loss of EV, I'd estimate about 0.1 - 0.2 BB. The decision not to check/raise the flop is also a pretty big mistake probably a similar order of magnitude (harder to estimate though). I don't doubt that Kevin is a thinking player who had a reason for his decision to not raise -- he's made good posts here regularly and it sounds like he wins in some moderately tough games. But his reasons for not raising are poor and this board is one where 3betting is more valuable than average, and the standard line is to 3bet, so that makes cold-calling bad. The board texture and his relative position are all bad for just calling here.

All I am saying is that this hand was botched royally. That does not mean Kevin isn't a good player, but hopefully it does mean that he'll learn something from it and become an even better player.

[emerson]

Sounds good. I nominate you as the new head coach for the Saints.

Time to put a paper bag over your avatar.

[Kevin J]

Thanks sweetjazz and Lestat. I take your comments to heart. I never meant this to be about anything but the river fold. And I don't think that's even too important, since I don't know anyone who went broke calling $40 in an $800 pot.

It's interesting that the few high stakes players I've discussed this hand with didn't bat an eye at the pre-flop call. Even if it's -EV it doesn't concern me much. In the same way it doesn't concern me that raising 98s UTG is -EV. I don't make either play nearly enough for it to cost me much. Although I will have both these hands now and then. It's also very rare that I wouldn't re-raise this flop. It was all just to change things up for one hand. And I feel slightly compelled to be results oriented long enough to point out that had a card or two fallen differently, my play would've resulted in winning a gigantic pot.

But again, I take your comments to heart and I definitely appreciate and respect your input. Thanks again.