#21
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
ooooooo, it's gonna be close.......
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#22
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
grats BSP's on SF lol
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#23
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
wow
they were on the 20 |
#24
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
BOOM!
BSPs are hot, hot, hot |
#25
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
That's it... Next week I'm on the BSP picks for 10 units each.
- C - |
#26
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick
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#27
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
ty for pick
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#28
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
[ QUOTE ]
that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick [/ QUOTE ] Scary but true I think. |
#29
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick [/ QUOTE ] Scary but true I think. [/ QUOTE ] I had the unfortunate luck of discovering the Kelly criterion before learning about sample sizes. Some dude on the TheRX (Spreadbeater I believe) was hitting over 60% on his NBA picks over a sample size of (ZOMG!) ~100 games, so I decided to start tailing him. First night I tailed him he posted 5 picks (a lot for him), so I was pretty excited. I threw down 8% of my bankroll on each game (full kelly sizing for a 60% win rate, simultaneous wagers be damned). After a 1-4 night...good-bye 25% of my bankroll. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
#30
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Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
Thanks as always Natedogg
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