bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

[g4rb0]

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Then, for the times they do hit, how will you avoid putting more money in the pot to justify their call? Are you going to check/fold every time a scare card comes maybe? Also, do you see how this will further restrict your ability to value bet on later streets? When the third heart peels off on the turn, it's going to be more difficult to know where you stand. C-betting half the pot certainly won't chase off a flush draw... ok, so now you have a k-high board with AK and are getting action. Now you're guessing.

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So what sort of a bet are you going to make on a flop like this? over-bet pot sized? and what about when the flop is pretty dry, something like K,8,2 rainbow. Would you agree with a 1/2 the pot bet? How does position and players in the pot affect your decision here?

[deucethree]

It seems like some people want it both ways. They say don't make reasonable flop bets because people can continue and get implied odds. Yet, when they over-bet and bloat pots they can often get pot-committed and drawing dead. Why is it worse to make a half-pot bet and maybe have to fold to a scary turn card than to make a big flop bet and get a caller who can potentially get you to either play a huge pot against his made draw, or force you to throw away that same hand on a scare card but with more money invested? I understand you'll chase away more draws with the bet that makes it more wrong to call, but if you're deep stacked you're still going to have to play poker and make reads on future streets. Making pots big early in the hand isn't some magical solution.

Of course you can always short stack I guess...

The main times I bet big in relation to the pot are on very strong but very vunerable hands w/ multi-way action where the first caller can easily encourage a couple more callers or when I highly suspect I'm on the good side of a cooler. Otherwise, I think if you feel you have a strong game relative to the field you're much better off playing a style that allows for more, smaller decisions rather than fewer, bigger ones. Just makes sense.

[alewis21]

Steve,
First off, you may want to reconsider playing hands like 67o if you aren't comfortable playing them when a sketchy flop comes. Certain preconditions need to be met when marginal hands qualify for playing. If they are not met, you are making a big mistake by even limping in:

The table needs to be loose and preferably passive. You will certainly be behind going to a flop at a tight table, and the times you hit your hand, you won't see enough action to compensate for all the accumalated chips lost when you don't make it. Which, I may add, is most of the time. Loose players will give you the action. The weaker the table, the better.

You must be in late position. You mentioned limping in mid position - Stop It. The idea is to see a flop cheap, so you don't want to cold call any big raises either. Ideally, you want multiple limpers ahead of you.

You have to be prepared to let the hand go, even if you hit top pair. Remember the reason you got in the hand to begin with: to flop a well disguised monster or a draw to it, and get paid off lucaratively with a small investment. You didn't get in there to flop mid or even top pair, like a hand like AJo is meant to do. Keep in mind the strengths and intentions of the different types of hands, and play to them.

If you are in late position and four handed to the flop, and a flop of 5 7 2 rainbow connects with your 67o, what do you do if someone in early position bets? You fold. Think about it - what is he betting with? Probably top pair or an overpair, but most likely with a hand that beats you! If it's checked around to you, I'd bet 2/3 of the pot. If you bet too small out of fear, and get called, you won't know where you stand, but a good sized bet would normally fold anyone who isn't serious about playing. If you take the pot, great, but if you get called I'd give up on it. There are too many hands that beat you, and four handed to a flop makes it that much more likely that at least one of them does, so fold with all your might, and smile knowing you made the right choice. Heads up, you most likely have the best hand with top pair. Still, proceed with caution, but less so than against multiple foes.

Your intent is to make small investments with drawing hands, don't let a hand like 67o make you pay half your money!

Let's address your first issue of how to size a bet:

If you have AQo to a flop of A 10 9 two suited. There are possible flush and straight draws on that board, and you don't want to get drawn out, right? A lot of players will overbet the pot to really muscle out drawing players because it seems would be the worst thing in the world if they got drawn out on. Don't do this for a couple reasons:

1. You want the draws to call at an incorrect price.
2. You don't want second best hands that aren't draws, who would call a smaller bet, to fold.
3. You don't want to put more money in the pot if you are somehow beaten.

You want to find just the right balance. If someone is one a flush draw, he has 9 outs to make his hand. That's roughly a 38 percent chance of making it all the way to the river, and just about a 19 percent chance he'll catch it on the turn (4 to 1). If the pot is $50, he would only be correct in calling a $16 bet by you - $16 to win $66 (perhaps a little more if you factor in implied odds.) If he figures you'll check the turn, then he would be allowed to call about a $35 bet, believing he'll get that free card. You know, of course, that you got a hand, and you won't give him a free card. Heads up I would bet about $30 here, but with more players I'd bet about $40 and maybe even the pot here, and here's why. If you bet too small, you may get called by someone who doesn't have the draw, and the sweeter pot could then give proper odds to the actual man with the draw. (Betting 30 and getting called will take the pot to 110. Thirty to win 110 are chop licking good odds for a draw.) Top pair hands are vulnerablein a multiway pot, so don't get cute. Even with Pocket Aces, you want to take the pot down ASAP.

You have to always size your bets as a ratio to the pot. Hope this helps. Let me know.

[reemas]

great post alweis. some good info in there.