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#22
08-16-2006, 01:56 PM
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Re: ($55s): AK facing big stack min raise.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yugo - I just don't see how risking nearly 4000 chips against a maniac to win 350 is going to be a profitable play. Seems the risk/reward is not there. I like your line of a small raise to 600 or so as we will still be able to c-bet without losing too much if he plays back at us. Also the fact we often stack him when an A or K flops. [/ QUOTE ] Raising and planning to c-bet regardless is probably the most -ev suggestion yet. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain why you think this? I wouldn't fire at a 100% of flops, I just mean there is still that option to win the pot when we whiff. 
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#23
08-16-2006, 01:57 PM
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Re: ($55s): AK facing big stack min raise.
jay,
It's like pushing 16.5 BBs (vs. 1 oppoent and less than 10xBB vs. everyone else) given the dead chips.....but yes the risk/reward is not very attractive. I think your opponent can call with A9-AK, as well as many pocket pairs and possibly even KJ since he's a maniac. Pushing likely could be worth like .5% EV but meh given overcalls and stuff it may be breakeven or possibly even -EV. Ok, yes, pushing is a clear clear mistake...and even "terrible," [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. But okay it was a thought that popped into my mind randomly and I then realized it didn't make much sense. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Yugoslav
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#24
08-16-2006, 02:01 PM
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Re: ($55s): AK facing big stack min raise.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yugo - I just don't see how risking nearly 4000 chips against a maniac to win 350 is going to be a profitable play. Seems the risk/reward is not there. I like your line of a small raise to 600 or so as we will still be able to c-bet without losing too much if he plays back at us. Also the fact we often stack him when an A or K flops. [/ QUOTE ] Raising and planning to c-bet regardless is probably the most -ev suggestion yet. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain why you think this? I wouldn't fire at a 100% of flops, I just mean there is still that option to win the pot when we whiff. [/ QUOTE ] You made it sound like you would cbet 100%....but yeah, some flops you'd want to bet at and some you wouldn't. Anyway, most of the value you will extract postflop is when your A or K hits and he donks a ton of chips to you with 2nd best. Even if he's v aggro postflop it shouldn't neutralize you too much as he won't be able to get away from when he hits 2nd best. Yugoslav
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#26
08-16-2006, 02:05 PM
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Re: ($55s): AK facing big stack min raise.
just a newb to the board...but I don't think raising and Cbet is the most neg ev play here...for starters earlier poster was right in that a call prices in other callers and a multi-way is gonna be alot more difficult to take down post flop. This min raise could just be a probe...if thats the case I put him on a pp 9s or higher. If you raise 700 and reraise it's an easy fold as he's probably on kk or AA..if raised/called, and you like the texture of the flop cbet is in order...if you flop tptk you stand a good chance of getting his stack...I like the 700 raise and see what happens...bottom line is you're against a donk with a nice hand and he's got alot of resources to hand over. JMHO
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#27
08-16-2006, 02:06 PM
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Re: ($55s): AK facing big stack min raise.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] lacky - I think calling is problematic as it prices in many other stacks to see a flop. But I guess I don't hate it...if he had raised larger this is likely what I'd do. [/ QUOTE ] If I have the best hand, and I likely do, in the long run I want worse hands calling. [/ QUOTE ] You'd rather play post flop 3-5 handed in a large pot rather than play one HU vs. an opponent who sounds like he'll take Kx and Ax way too far vs. you? Or do you feel you're creating too big a pot by raising to like 700 here? Hell, you can minraise and it's v likely to get HU here. Yugoslav
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#28
08-16-2006, 02:08 PM
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Re: ($55s): AK facing big stack min raise.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yugo - I just don't see how risking nearly 4000 chips against a maniac to win 350 is going to be a profitable play. Seems the risk/reward is not there. I like your line of a small raise to 600 or so as we will still be able to c-bet without losing too much if he plays back at us. Also the fact we often stack him when an A or K flops. [/ QUOTE ] Raising and planning to c-bet regardless is probably the most -ev suggestion yet. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain why you think this? I wouldn't fire at a 100% of flops, I just mean there is still that option to win the pot when we whiff. [/ QUOTE ] You made it sound like you would cbet 100%....but yeah, some flops you'd want to bet at and some you wouldn't. Anyway, most of the value you will extract postflop is when your A or K hits and he donks a ton of chips to you with 2nd best. Even if he's v aggro postflop it shouldn't neutralize you too much as he won't be able to get away from when he hits 2nd best. Yugoslav [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, should have made that clear about the c-bet. I'm obviously not c-betting a QJ8 2-tone board or w/e. I do think flat-calling his raise is losing a lot of value with AK, especially as the players left to act are also likly to come along for the ride.
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#29
08-16-2006, 02:09 PM
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Re: ($55s): AK facing big stack min raise.
I agree with Yugo that pushing would probably be +EV (which is why I said it's fine), but it's so suboptimal that I'll also concede to the terrible crowd.
I see Yugo has now changed his reraise amount to 700 - why is that? I still think 550 or so accomplishes similar things but keeps the pot a little more manageable. It just doesn't build quite as big of a pot from a value perspective. If I thought 700 was significantly more likely to get a preflop fold out of this guy, then I'm on board. But bad players with monster stacks seem likely to call 550 or 700 without much thought. Getting back to the question of what kind of bad player we're dealing with, I'll change my answer a bit and suggest that more predictable guys I like to raise and isolate. Against wilder players, just calling sounds good to me now.
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