Tennis - French Open - almost a lock?

[smbruin22]

my sense is that nadal at +100 is decent value (assuming no injury risk - i don't know the situation)....

i would probably bypass federer as he's in serious danger of losing in each of the last 3-4 rounds...

what are the odds on nalbandian? i think that's the clearcut #3 guy.... for the field bet, i'd have to see who's not in there. gasquet or even monfils could do some damage (seem to recall one of these guys is playing big name in second round).

[llabb]

Smchant, I had Nalbandian at +3000, and he's +2200 on Pinny right now. Still decent value if you like him. I like him to get to the semi's against Federer, and then have a decent shot at that price.

Gasquet plays Nalbandian in the next round, so no bet on him. I already rode Monfils, as stated above, and like him or Almagro to make the quarters against Nadal. I have 5u on Nadal, and will hedge if he faces Fed in the final, perhaps no hedge if a lesser opponent.

1st round results: 21-1, +1.6u

2nd Round risking 1 unit:
Nalbandian -400
Gaudio -300
Mauresmo -2000
Venus -1400
Clijsters -2300
Kuznetsova -1300
Hingis -3100
Henin-Hardene -3000

Risking half a unit:
Grosjean: -450
Ferrerro -300
Almagro -250
Schnyder -600
Benesova +400
Schiavone -600
Vaidisova -1100
Ivanovic -650
Myskina -450
Dementieva -800

[smbruin22]

yeah, i don't like gasquet.... much more like monfils game.... he's much more likely to get to the federer/nadal level than anyone else i know (call me crazy, it's what i see).

seemed like it was alot of great up and comers at 120-1

BTW, i have never heard of this almagro (sp?) guy.... although that pretty shows what you should think of my FO picks... who is this guy? i think he's the co-#3 favorite..... what do i know?

[llabb]

As expected, Nalbandian beat Gasquet today. Almagro is an up and coming clay court specialist who is #2 in Spain behind Nadal. He is not the sensation that Nadal is, but is very good. If he makes it through Blake, tt will be a tough battle between him and Monfils in the next round. I like the winner of that match to keep winning until facing Nadal.

Ferrer is a good dark horse to make the semis against Nadal. I forgot him in my Round 2 list above. Risking 1 unit on Ferrer at -1400.

Won all my favorites in Round 2 today, lost the underdog fade on Sharapova. She looked much better in today's match than in her 1st round match that she almost lost. Will update round 2 after it concludes tomorrow.

[llabb]

It's a rainy, rainy Roland Garros. Lots of mud and lots of matches postponed today. If it stays this way through the finals, it favors Nadal over Federer.

Round 2 results: 13-2, +0.7u
Overall: 34-3, +2.3u

Open Round 2 wagers postponed to Friday: Clijsters, Hingis, Ferrer, Almagro, Dementieva.

Round 3 wagers, risking 1 unit:
Federer -2000
Mauresmo -600

Risking half a unit:
Ferrerro +110
Moya +190
Vaidisova -600
Venus -400
Schnyder -500
Safina -600
Schiavone -200
Kuznetsova -400

[llabb]

Risking 1 unit:
Robredo -800
Nalbandian -725
Henin-Hardene -2000

Risking half a unit:
Ancic -300
Hewitt -120
Federer to win 3-0 -200
Nadal to win 3-0 -500
Vaidisova to win 2-0 -200
Schnyder to win 2-0 -165
Kuznetsova to win 2-0 -135
Clijsters to win 2-0 -460

[Stormwolf]

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Nadal to win 3-0 -500


[/ QUOTE ]

jesus christ, please tell me you didnt took this bet

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
Bookies love this type of reasoning. They have made alot of money of it over the years.

[/ QUOTE ]

NH sir.

[Rick305]

[ QUOTE ]
Risking 1 unit:
Robredo -800
Nalbandian -725
Henin-Hardene -2000

Risking half a unit:
Ancic -300
Hewitt -120
Federer to win 3-0 -200
Nadal to win 3-0 -500
Vaidisova to win 2-0 -200
Schnyder to win 2-0 -165
Kuznetsova to win 2-0 -135
Clijsters to win 2-0 -460

[/ QUOTE ]

have you ever heard of an underdog?

[smbruin22]

anyone else like lubijic (sp?) at +900 on friday... only saw small part of his match today (and didn't see final score) but he looked awfully good from what i saw....

i think he's the kind of guy who could give nadal fits... nadal score wasn't too dominating today, although he'll get bigger rest (i'll have to check lubijic score as i'm flying blind here, but he was way up on beneteau when i was watching).