Massively behind schedule for million hand prop bet with brother

[sharky01]

So last August my brother bet me $50 that I couldn’t play 1million hands of micro stakes poker in 2 years. We defined microstakes at 50nl or lower and I had from 1st August 2006 until 1st August 2008. Basically I am a student who never has anything to do and I like beating my brother at silly bets so decided to take him on with this one. I had pretty much never played any poker before this prop bet and spent the first 100k hands with little or no clue of how to beat 10nl. Anyhow I am nearly a year on and I’ve played about 240,000 hands of 50nl or lower to try and win this bet which means I’ve got about a year to play 760,000 hands or so. I think I am going to struggle to do it with university work but if I can do it then it’ll be sick. I just love playing microstakes but still don’t feel confident enough to play at 50nl so I am still at 25nl grinding the hands out there. I’m on summer vacation at the moment and playing like 4k hands a day so I can hopefully get up to halfway before term starts. Hopefully I can have the guts to start logging some serious hands at 50nl but I’ll have to toughen up. I started reading 2p2 and watching CR vids about 170,000 hands in which has helped me. I am still a pretty bad poker player but luckily its only microstakes. I have rakeback as well so I am nearly making enough money to buy a pint of lager an hour (think hourly rate is like $3 so it has to be a cheap lager). None of this balla watch nonsense here.

Will any of you 2p2ers give me some good odds on doing this or not? I think I back myself to do it but it’ll be pretty tough. It would be pretty funny if I broke even over 1mil hands. (Can someone lay odds for me on that as well?)

Here are my DBs and what not to show you where I am up to:

FWIW my brother who I made the bet with is breakeven at 10nl over 40k hands. He thinks I have no chance of doing this.



Beat: Rolled for 200nl but playing 25nl and plenty more horrendous beats
Brag: If I win the bet then I am going to buy some Subway sandwiches with his $50
Variance: Still [censored] at poker