calculating outs...

[Matt Williams]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in "the little green book". He discusses calculating outs and there are times you "counterfeit" you outs due to some of your outs being folded.

For instance, if you calculate your outs at 9 there are times you may want to do your odds calculations with 7 or 8. Counterfeit your number of outs to account for those cards that may have been folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree. His explanation might be a litle muddled but discounting your outs is the best wayto go.

Example: you're on an open ended straight draw. so you should have 8 outs. Well what if there is two to a flush on the board? Now it's possible that two of your outs could make someone else a flush, in which case you might discount to 6 outs. You're not discounting for your outs being folded, but the possibility of some of your outs making some else a better hand. Example #2 you hold AK and board comes Q,J,9. You have two overcards so you might assume 6 outs (any K or A will beat somebody with a pir of Q's, J,s or 9's) But what if a player has K,T or A,T, ?(or already has two pair) Then hitting one of your outs makes them a straight. The point is that your outs are not all "clean" winners. You can still make the hand you hope for and get beat. So maybe here you discount to 4 or even 3. How much you discount will depend on your opponents style and how many are in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea but you can't assume he has a draw to a higher flush 100% of the time. He may have it maybe 10% of the time. So you figure 7.5 outs but to make it easier you round it up to 8 outs. Sure there are times you will be surprised,but it doesn't happen often enough to justify not counting the particular out.


Basically, don't make "expert laydowns". I mean if you know 100% how someone plays, sure. But not in normal situations.

[skelm]

Ok thanks for that - apreachiate the feedback

[Poker Plan]

Don't lose sight of why we count Outs- it's to come to an approximation (with the info we have) as to the likelihood of making a winning hand- you can adjust the number of outs you think you have by various factors to compensate for any additional info you have on your opponents.