Three bet squeeze with ak gets donkey kong'd

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
He has to fold more than 1/3 of the time for this shove to be +ev:

Board: 4c 4d 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.232% 27.47% 00.76% 130560 3600.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 71.768% 71.01% 00.76% 337440 3600.00 { QQ-88 }

I think AA en KK are very unlikely because of your hand and the way the hand was played.
When you shove and he calls you put 386$ in a pot of 530$. You have 28% equity in a 916$ pot which equals 256$, so you lose 130$ when he calls.
When you shove and he folds you win 288$.
He has to fold roughly 1/3 of the time. But he doesn't, so fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol at discounting AA/KK. Yes they are less likely since we have AK, but pokerstove takes that into account so that's a moot point.

I would never 3bet this guy's utg raise preflop with AK if those stats are over more than 100 hands. I would just call I think, although folding probably is ok if those stats are over a big sample.

Keep in mind one thing, though. Just because his pfr is 1.5 doesn't mean his range is the top 1.5% of starting hands. For all we know he might just open raise his vulnerable QQ/JJ type hands and then limps or cold/calls with AA/KK to trap. Regardless, preflop is bad and the flop is an instamuck.

[reup]

[TheJared]

I don't see how we get from "1.5 PFR" to actually putting money in this pot with AK.

What hands were you hoping were in his range when you 3bet in the first place?

[reup]

yeah i actually didn't have stats up yet when this hand went down /thread thanks for your time.

[jfish]

that picture is gonna give me epilepsy

[AAismyfriend]

you don't have to win every pot you know.

[reup]

[reup]

You mean like share?

[pologuy64]

No, a shove is def. -EV!

[mustmuck]

reup, there's no point in giving his preflop stats if you didn't have them at the time. Having his stats makes this fold trivial.

Picture of hands is disturbing.