Post Your Winrates At PLO8

[Split Suit]

Fiasco...what were ur winrates at the Ongame (Pokerroom/Hollywood...) skins at 25 and 50PLO8? i played with u quite a bit there and u always seemed to b doin quite well

i played as Split Suit, uratowel, and a handle i cant remember at the moment on there. i just remember respectin u on there and was wonderin ur WRs there

[Mendacious]

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I think that's typical. Nits can be lower, LAGs higher (I'm 105PTBB/100), but 50's pretty average for PLO8 I believe. The number is on the session notes tab > more detail popup in PokerTracker.

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For most players I would expect that the amount of the buy-in (in bbs)largely determines the SD in PL/NL games. I would be very curious to see SD's for limit.

[Phil153]

Mendacious,

The standard deviation is an amazingly accurate measure of the variability of a system. It automatically takes into account all complexities, provided a few simple conditions are met (which they are in poker, cell growth, intelligence, height, stock trading...)

In your robot example, the standard deviation of your system would be greater in the weighted toss example, so the increased variance is properly accounted for. But let's work through it to see how big the effect would be.

For the non weighted case: s.d. = sqrt(10000*.54*.46)49.8 (good guess with the 50, btw). Therefore non weight range is 5400 ± 50

The standard deviation for the weighted case is: sqrt(9990*.54*.46 + 10*200*.54*200*.46) = 319. Therefore weighted case is 5400 ± 319.

So you can see that the SD has automatically taken care of the change in distribution.

The predictive ability of the standard deviation is bulletproof. I know it's hard to appreciate that a single quantity can so accurately describe a system as complex as poker, but it does.

There are two objections you can raise to using this in poker:

- The effect of kurtosis and "fat tails", as gergery pointed out (in his blog entry about his experience as a gay poker player, which was very moving - but I digress). The idea is that running good or bad may lead to changed table image and/or opportunities. I consider this largely irrelevant over more than a couple of sessions.

- The effect of psychology. This is the only valid objection IMO. People aren't bots, and will develop habits of playing at bad times, playing drunk, getting bored, losing focus, etc. You may be unaffected by these things over 10K hands. Your long term winrate must take this into account, and it's the only thing that a 50K number gives you that a 10K number doesn't.

But in terms of everything else, the confidence interval given by winrate + standard deviation is far more important than having an arbitrary number of hands. An example is davebreal. After 195K hands it's still possible he's a losing player. And if those 2.66bb/100 are bb and not PTBB, then there's still a significant possibility he's a losing/breakeven player.

[davebreal]

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then there's still a significant possibility he's a losing/breakeven player

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probably.

ytd ring game results (obviously rakeback + fpps bump this much higher)


luckily i did not punch any holes in the wall today either

Sasha Cohen: be real
Sasha Cohen: lol wow
davebreal: stupid donkey
Sasha Cohen: BE REAL
Sasha Cohen: DAVE
davebreal: lol, what an awful player
Sasha Cohen: im sorry you outplayed me, but you dont have to insult
Sasha Cohen: i lose pots too
Sasha Cohen: and, i think you'd be
surprised if you knew our history
davebreal: actually you outplayed yourself
Sasha Cohen: nah, i know you have the boots when you reraise, im not folding with no money

fu

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im not folding with no money

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Mercyful]

rakeback in pokerstars?

[Fiasco]

thanks. I remember uratowel, dont remember playing split suit (maybe at LO8?)

Looks like I was doing 24 PTBB/100 over 8k hands at $25 and 10 PTBB/100 over 4.5k hands at $50. For some reason I think the $100 and $200 games in that era were actually easier than the $50s, my numbers seem to back that up.

[Split Suit]

yea...i played on 'uratowel' on a group bankroll...all PLO8 MTT scores were mine...but ring games werent always me. and yes, before Frist the 100 games were very easy on Ongame. thnx Frist for effing up my yearly winrate by a quarter

[davebreal]

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rakeback in pokerstars?

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yes, i have an exclusive deal for 60% rakeback, unfortunately it is not available to the public.

sorry.

[Split Suit]

dave...i set the O/U on how many PMs u get in the next 2 days about this 60% RB at about 24.




i take the over

[prodonkey]

OVA.

LOL @ Sasha

He sent me a hand where u stacked off with A45 something on a A5Q flop.. something like that.. that your normal play?