QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)

[Ringmaster]

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Not raising here is quite dumb

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FYP

[Fingerswinger]

my head is spinning.

obviously it depends on the range we put villain on.
possibly my range was a bit too tight (due to results orientedness).

i still don't see how this is hugely +ev, but shoving might be the right move.
i'm not certain what the definite answer is. but thanks for the good discussion!

[Casper05]

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shove and its not close

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[Ringmaster]

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i still don't see how this is hugely +ev

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Well it is, just think about it. If we're 50/50 vs his calling range, shoving would be 0EV if he calls every time. Clearly he's folding some % of the time. You opened from the button, so his 3-bet range is likely pretty wide (especially since you said you had been active on the table). He's likely c-betting with his whole range on the flop (or close to it). So when we push, he's folding a significant amount of the time.

Exactly how often is up for debate, but suppose he folds only 10% of the time. There's 92 in the pot, so we'd get +9.2 in EV from pushing just from the 1 in 10 times he folds. Most player are going to be folding a lot more than this in a button vs blind situation. If we're close to EV neutral when he calls, and that seems to be the case here, then the fold equity we get from pushing is just printing money.

[Fingerswinger]

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i still don't see how this is hugely +ev

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Well it is, just think about it. If we're 50/50 vs his calling range, shoving would be 0EV if he calls every time. Clearly he's folding some % of the time. You opened from the button, so his 3-bet range is likely pretty wide (especially since you said you had been active on the table). He's likely c-betting with his whole range on the flop (or close to it). So when we push, he's folding a significant amount of the time.

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"calling range" implies that he calls everytime, doesn't it?

but as stated earlier i think his calling range might be significantly tighter, to the point where we only have about 30% equity (a bit extreme, maybe) - see my earlier pokerstove.

what it boils down to is: when we shove and he calls, we're most likely way behind or about a coinflip. but when we shove and he folds we win what's already in the pot. so he must have a wide enough c-betting range that he has a weak hand often enough for our shove to be profitable.

[Fingerswinger]

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Exactly how often is up for debate, but suppose he folds only 10% of the time. There's 92 in the pot, so we'd get +9.2 in EV from pushing just from the 1 in 10 times he folds. Most player are going to be folding a lot more than this in a button vs blind situation. If we're close to EV neutral when he calls, and that seems to be the case here, then the fold equity we get from pushing is just printing money.

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fold equity implies that he folds a hand that beats us, right? i really don't see him do so in this situation.

[Casper05]

you aren't getting it. We are ahead a TON here, and when we are behind we have good outs. The only 2 hands that suck are KK and AA with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[ValarMorghulis]

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you aren't getting it. We are ahead a TON here, and when we are behind we have good outs. The only 2 hands that suck are KK and AA with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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And of course the A/K high flush.

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fold equity implies that he folds a hand that beats us, right? i really don't see him do so in this situation.

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The fold equity we gain is also hands which have a significant equity in the pot which have to fold when we push.

But the main reason to push is to get hands with very little equity against us to call. For example TT with a diamond. AJ without a diamond.

Also, we are not sure whether we want to see a diamond or not, so we could make a very big mistake by calling whereas by shoving we are definitely making G-bucks.

[yad]

You've gotta shove here, though I'm not as happy about it as some of the other posters in this thread. Just calling is terrible -- if a diamond comes off, you're not going to get any more money if you're ahead, and you'll get stacked if behind. If an A or K comes, you'll often fold the best hand. If an A or K or diamond doesn't come, you'll get stacked by hands that beat you and won't get more money from anything that you're beating, except possibly AJ.

Shoving is for hand protection, value, and as a semibluff. This sounds a little counterintuitive, but you need to charge draws (which are generally not folding because they also have at least an overcard, but it's still better to get their money in now), and many villains will fold KK no diamond to your shove (whether they are right to do so is another question, but it's actually not a terrible fold imo). You also avoid losing to AK no diamond when a non-diamond A or K comes off, though obv this is only 4 outs.

[Ringmaster]

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fold equity implies that he folds a hand that beats us, right?

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No. It's just the portion of our total EV that comes from the times he folds.

Mathematically, our EV can be decomposed into fold equity (how much we can expect to win when he folds) and pot equity (how much we can expect to win when he calls), which are weighted by the probability that villain folds or calls, respectively.