2k turbo, ?

Joe tbh alot of the readers of STTF have never played a $200 sng let alone a $2,000.

The levels of thinking that go on here are substantially higher than that of the average level here. Unfortunately some of the higher stakes pro's have left SNG's in search of a greater hourly.

I played a hand similarly to this not so long ago, but it was live so I didn't post it but it was a source of discusssion for the rest of the evening.

Surely villain floats this flop quite a high % of the time when checked to. I love the flop play.

Your Kings are basically worthless now and if you call here with KK I thhink you should be calling any A and maybe any K.

Have never played with sorel but from what I hear he is capable of 3-barrelling in this spot.I don't think air makes up a significant part of his range often enough to make this profitable so I fold. FWIW postflop I really don't mind how you played it.

[Pasterbator]

yea, this hand is sick and pudge and i cant seem to find a correct answer.

one point i wonder:

once you call the turn, can imperium really put you on a non 9x/Tx hand? can he really expect you to call the turn/fold the river with many hands in your range?

idk, if we look at it like that, i cant see a call being right bc it REALLY doesnt look like we're folding at any point, and he doesnt seem to care.

[Pasterbator]

also, i like the flop/turn line obv.

ugh, i looooove to call, but unless imperium is going crazy deep with his thinking and figures he can push you off of a 9... im finding a fold.


but i want to call.


geez

[Jehaim]

Imperium bets that small amount on the turn because he wants to have a big allin bet left on the river, so you should call.

[The Yugoslavian]

joe,

What is the value of almost knocking him out and forcing a big bubble for you at this particular table? Seems to me your stack will be v v valuable for quite a few hands.

If it's really as close as ppl are saying given the player (I've never played with him ldo) seems to me that's a v significant factor.

(basically what Slim is talkin' about)

Yugoslav

[Jennifear]

Joe, here's the best answer I can give you, as you know your opponent better than I do.

If you fold:

Player Chips Prob 1st Prob 2nd Prob 3rd Equity
Big Joe 1535 0.1154 0.1375 0.1769 $2539.19
Zangbezan 3675 0.2763 0.2598 0.2313 $4958.96
APerfectGent 985 0.0741 0.0920 0.1251 $1694.47
Malicious 3365 0.2530 0.2488 0.2366 $4695.98
Dsavo 3740 0.2812 0.2618 0.2301 $5011.40


If you call and win:

Player Chips Prob 1st Prob 2nd Prob 3rd Equity
Big Joe 5220 0.3867 0.3125 0.2180 $6249.89
Zangbezan 190 0.0141 0.0200 0.0341 $375.55
APerfectGent 985 0.0730 0.0992 0.1597 $1855.65
Malicious 3365 0.2493 0.2758 0.3035 $5066.60
Dsavo 3740 0.2770 0.2924 0.2848 $5352.31

You risk $2539.19 in equity to gain $3710.70.

On the surface you have to be 40.62% sure that he doesn't have AA, any ten, any nine, or 44 to call.

There are two intangibles that don't figure in to the equity calculation as I see it:

1. If you win, you have a measure of control of the SNG with your lead, so your true equity exceeds that of the calculation, should you win.

2. You are on the button. That also accounts for a small amount of equity.

So your true equity may be in the $6750 range if you win, rather than the $6250 on paper.

So my answer is that you have to truly be approximately 37.5% certain that he doesn't hold over you.

You know your opponent better than I.

Does Zangbezan24 hold better than your KK at least 5/8 of the time?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
2. You are on the button. That also accounts for a small amount of equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes it a pretty good candidate for some kind of event tree analysis. What's the next hand worth if he wins?

[Jennifear]

For a cleaner copy of my answer with pretty looking charts:

http://www.pocketfives.com/1BF7C841-...A98DB98A5.aspx

[bones]

Guys,

Don't click on the link above. It gave me some sort of virus where if I try to navigate around the site, all I see are threads about Annette_15 and folding aces pf.

[DDBeast]

I don't think I've ever folded a pair v. zangbezan.

But seriously, any hands he could be hoping to push you off of (A hi, JJ+), are rarely limped pf. He's gotta expect you to have a boat here the majority of the time. I might fold it.