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#2
11-26-2007, 11:45 AM
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Re: Macau 15k Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Todd, Bluffing to fold out a higher flush seems a bit crazy [/ QUOTE ] We're never going to survive, unless we get a little bit crazy. I said I didn't like it, but don't hate it either. The reasons I don't hate it is it's live, it's a big buy-in event, you have a recreational player, he can convince himself to fold if his tournament life is on the line, we could easily show up with QJ or 44 here given our line, our image is tight. 
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#4
11-28-2007, 05:42 AM
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Re: Macau 15k Hand
One last thought before i talk about results: At first i thought betting smaller on previous streets might be good here, but then i realized i don't think we have that discussion if board doesn't pair the river and puts us in a gross spot. That is, if river hits 9d, he checks, i jam, i'm pretty sure everyone thinks the hand is standard.
Results: I jam river, HJ beats me into the pot and flips up As2s. My soul got owned.
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#5
11-26-2007, 12:21 PM
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Re: Macau 15k Hand
Given your description of villain, I think the river might be a check. His comment during his KK hand of "I would've had to call you on the river" makes me think that he has a tough time getting away from big hands.
It seems to me like his range includes a non nut flush, nut flush, AQ, KQ, QJ, K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J, 44. Of these, it seems like the only hand that calls a push on the river that you beat is possibly A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J and possibly AQ. I guess I'm not really sure whether your play on the river is a bluff or a thin value bet. Do you think you can get him to lay down a better flush, and do you think you can get him to lay down the nut flush? Or is my thinking wrong, and the real question that I should be asking is how much can we get AQ or AJ to call on the river? Help me out here.
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#7
11-26-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: Macau 15k Hand
I bet about 11-1200 on the flop, 2300ish on the turn and prolly 3k on the river... I almost always prefer to keep the pot smaller than you did here
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#8
11-26-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: Macau 15k Hand
I swear I put in a reply here last night, but I'm with Eagles on this I don't see him ever calling with a hand you beat here and he could definitely have a higher flush or even boat now based on description, so I think you need to check behind.
If we're deeper, bet/fold.
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