Red AA. 6/12 limit. Action on the turn.

[Aces McGee]

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So why don't we showdown monkey and start checking?

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Because we're still ahead fairly often, and he's checking quite a lot on this turn -- particularly if he holds a club.

-McGee

[threeducks]

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This is not a good flop

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I've seen this a few times here lately where people raise with an overpair, the flop comes paired, and the poster makes a point to say that the flop is bad for their hand.



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yeah. everyone needs to stay away from this type of scared, weak thinking. paired flops are good for overpairs!

paired flops keep our AA from getting outdrawn more often.

paired flops can get our AA paid off by worse pairs more often(people call down more liberally on paired flops with as weak as Ahigh).

paired flops hit fewer hand combinations against our AA.

paired flops mean that if our AA improves, it's almost always to a full house.

automatically crapping your pants on paired boards when you flop an overpair is not going to maximize value. that said, when you are receiving excess action on a paired board by a nonmaniac/LAG you need to possibly reevaluate your plan unless you carry a maniacal/LAG image yourself(this is important).

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I seem to run into trips when there is a pair on the flop. So, one time I set out to try to calculate the probability of someone having a card of that rank. I spent a lot of time on it since I would have KK and the flop would be JxJ and the villain would have the J more often than not <font color="red">when he called my flop bet.</font>

I was never able to find the true probability. It is 73-1 to flop trips if you have 2 unpaired hold cards.

[mongidig]

Ask him to show you his flush and then call since you have 4 outs and odds to draw to the boat.

[threeducks]

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Ask him to show you his flush and then call since you have 4 outs and odds to draw to the boat.

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Let me count the pot. 6 to the flop for 2 sb, that is 11 sb. The turn is bet, raise, 3-bet and call. That is 6 sb for a total of 17 sb or 8.5 bb. I bet the turn (9.5 bb), he raises (11.5 bb), I call (12.5 bb). I am 9% to hit a FH (AA88) - yes, the odds are there, correctomondo.

Then I miss my FH on the river, I check and he bets. The pot now has 13.5 big bets and I am getting 1-13.5 odds. Hummmm..

[jesse8888]

Grunch

With no read whatsoever I check/fold the turn. If this player is capable of shenanigans at all, I call down. I don't ever bet out on the turn. I do however like the re-raise on the flop.

[TheCount212]

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Grunch

If this player is capable of shenanigans, I call down. I don't ever bet out on the turn, nor do I re-raise the flop.

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[James.]

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I would have KK and the flop would be JxJ and the villain would have the J more often than not <font color="red">when he called my flop bet.</font>

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it's probably worth noting that, as a holding, certain cards are more likely than others(especially given certain types of opponents).

for instance your JJx flop is more likely to hit a typical opponent than a 22x flop.

[threeducks]

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I would have KK and the flop would be JxJ and the villain would have the J more often than not <font color="red">when he called my flop bet.</font>

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it's probably worth noting that, as a holding, certain cards are more likely than others(especially given certain types of opponents).

for instance your JJx flop is more likely to hit a typical opponent than a 22x flop.

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Jack is much more likely in most cases than in this case an 8. I think the term is playing zone A-9 are more likely to have a card of that rank in play, unless it is on of the blinds. <font color="red">Good point.</font> Also, it depends on how loose the table is; 8-2 is not as likely to be out after a raise.

[Hamlet]

I really don't like the flop 3-bet. As the raiser, your hand is very likely to be a big pair or two big cards like AK. Let him think you have AK. I think a 3-bet gives him too much info for the small gain against a flush draw.

I think your opponent will show up with a smaller pocket pair an awful lot in this situation (I'm only talking about the flop. Obviously, once he raises the turn, his hand becomes much more likely to be a flush or an eight).

By 3-betting the flop and checking the turn, you let the smaller pair check behind on you. If you only call the flop, the small pair will feel obligated to protect his hand on the turn. Even a flush draw is going to be very tempted to bet the turn to push you off of your "no pair". If you are confident in your read, checkraising after a blank turn is the way to go.

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My opinion is that the flop was standard, he thinks "I have a flush draw and I am going to raise". It did clear the field and with a flush draw I think that the villian should have just called to get over calls. 1) a bigger flush draw behind is not folding and 2) a 8 is not folding and 3) a FH is raising. But, that was not part of the question.

A good line here might have been to 3-bet the flop as I did and check the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn intending to check and call the river. This is more passive but 1) I get to the river cheaply and 2) I get to see his hand.

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[threeducks]

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Grunch

If this player is capable of shenanigans, I call down. I don't ever bet out on the turn, <font color="red">nor do I re-raise the flop.</font>

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Are you that tight where you do not re-raise the flop? That assumes that you think on this flop you are already beat?

If you do not 3-bet the flop then you are giving up to overpairs like T-T and 9-9 who might not 3-bet preflop. Unless, you plan to check and call to the river.