Weird two pair spot in multiway limped pot

[KRANTZ]

well ill concede to the math, actually, if you're getting 3:1 after SB calls, and we're in agreement SB mostly has worse hands than you do, you should call.

if SB folds it's closer and I'd probably fold (but I'd also vbet! so im never in this spot). i just typically proceed that UTG has QT/set and is letting everyone do the betting for him more often than he has a hand like big spades (which are def in his range)

[palman]

I can't believe so many people are considering folding, ESPECIALLY since everyone agrees that we don't have to worry about the SB. Folding here getting 3:1 means you have to be over 75% confident you're beat by UTG. I can't see how anyone would be this confident given this line from UTG. It looks like a really awfully played KQ,QJ, J10 type hand from UTG enough to make this an auto-call.

If UTG was good, he wouldn't play any 2 cards this way. Therefore, since we know he's awful, I can't find this fold.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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I can't believe so many people are considering folding, ESPECIALLY since everyone agrees that we don't have to worry about the SB. Folding here getting 3:1 means you have to be over 75% confident you're beat by UTG.

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I really don't think we can rule out AK from sb's range. Not everybody raises it in a limped pot from the blinds and there's no reason to believe that he wasn't slowplaying/pot-controlling the flop and then froze up when the pot got 3-way.
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I can't see how anyone would be this confident given this line from UTG. It looks like a really awfully played KQ,QJ, J10 type hand from UTG enough to make this an auto-call.


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You really see those hands bet twice into two callers "often enough"? In my experience this is almost never any of those hands

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If UTG was good, he wouldn't play any 2 cards this way. Therefore, since we know he's awful, I can't find this fold.

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The thing is, there are many different ways to play badly. Limping QT (or AA/KK) UTG is one way that is entirely different from firing three barrels into two callers on this board. So you can't say that "if he's good you're ahead but he's not so you're also ahead."

[creedofhubris]

I agree with everyone who said, fire the river yourself.

That river bet from UTG is nasty. I'm OK with the fold, but UTG is rarely strong enough to pot you out, and you miss value by not betting vs. Ax/Kings up type hands which will call a bet but also often check the river.

[limon]

a raise pre flop is mandatory and clears all this up.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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a raise pre flop is mandatory and clears all this up.

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I think "mandatory" may be stretching it, although I do raise this more often than not.