OT.. Holy COW, Variance is a Monster!!

[snakekilla88]

most of time people complaining about variance have...
-short sample size
- leeks in thier game

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
100% of time people complaining about variance have...
-short sample size
- leeks in thier game

[/ QUOTE ]

[FlyWf]

leeks are delicious.

[MadScientist]

Standard deviation is about 2 for SNGs. Over your first hundred, up 60 BI.
stand dev for 100 tourns is SQRT(100)*2 = 20, so + 3 SD (like 1 in a 1000 chance) if you were breakeven.
If you had a 20% ROI, looking at 20 buyins, so a + 2 SD result.

Dropping 40 buyins, going up 60 buyins, somewhat unusual, but par for the course.

Post hands. Get someone to go over whole hand histories.

Note: 120+ buyin drop is about a 6 SD result. Probability is of a -4 SD is 0.003% and -6 is less than 0.00001%.

This is why there are so many posts along the lines of I dropped 60 buyins, WTF? But it is rare to see - 120 buyins (because that is from a losing player).

[elrudo]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think of playing one $11 tourney, and one $22 tourney?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, if you think you are beating these games.
The difference in skill level of your opponents between $11 and $22 SnG players isnt big at all.

Also, consider adding tables.

Btw, are you playing the regular SnGs, not the speeds ?

[Winenose]

[ QUOTE ]
Post hands. Get someone to go over whole hand histories.


[/ QUOTE ]

Now if i could get someone to go over whole hand histories...

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think of playing one $11 tourney, and one $22 tourney?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, if you think you are beating these games.
The difference in skill level of your opponents between $11 and $22 SnG players isnt big at all.

Also, consider adding tables.

Btw, are you playing the regular SnGs, not the speeds ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, I have been playing the Regulars SNG's.. What do you recommend, and why?

Also, I just placed 10th in a MTT table tourney on Full Tilt with 1200 hundred players.. Unfortunately, the best $$ started at the final nine..

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
most of time people complaining about variance have...
-short sample size
- leeks in thier game

[/ QUOTE ]

Yo, BeerMoney is well aware he has leaks in his game. That wasn't really the point of the post. I don't want to come across as saying "&$@# fish!! They're taking all MY money!!" I hope it didn't come across that way. But, I certainly have taken my fair share of beats, though.

I really think my biggest leak is near the bubble. I will check out SNG analyzer and play with it for a little bit.

[b33nz]

ive always wondered where the phrase "holy cow" came from...

[hra146]

[ QUOTE ]
ive always wondered where the phrase "holy cow" came from...

[/ QUOTE ]

from India obviously... from where cows are holy.