ZeeJustin Prop Bet

[btmagnetw]

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[muxplust]

just take stevesbets, he will be the champion

[Admo]

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just take stevesbets, he will be the champion

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mux+t,

Awesome idea. Want more action?

Let's work this out and book a big one for next year's ME.

-A

[TomHimself]

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just take stevesbets, he will be the champion

[/ QUOTE ]get off his dick

[gergery]

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If I had to guess, I would say Hellmuth has the highest ROI at roughly 1400%.

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I've not played with hellmuth and he gets a lot of trash on these boards -- what makes you say he's that good?

-g

[Howard Treesong]

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I was going to make this bet at $600 per player with my friend Barry Goren, but I forgot to officially pick my team before the event started. I wasn't trying to haggle over price with Mike since the ME is now a year away. I doubt this bet will ever happen.

FWIW, here are some of the players I had decided on picking (I never decided on all 20):

Phil Hellmuth, Phill Ivey, Barry Greenstein
Daniel Negreanu, Brian Townsend, Mike Mizrachi
JC Tran, Alan Sass, Justin Bonomo
Sorel Mizzi, Mike Matusow, Alex Jacob
Carl Olson, Allen Cunningham, David Pham
Jon Little.

If I had to guess, I would say Hellmuth has the highest ROI at roughly 1400%. Ivey would be close, and Barry wouldn't be that far behind. I think 4th would be a significant amount behind those three though.


Think about it this way. What is the 5000th best player's equity in this tournament? $1,000? Maybe?

What about the 3000th best player? $2500?

The 1,000th best player in the field is probably around the worst player to have a 0% roi, or a $10,000 expectation.

Where does all that equity go? Straight to the best players. The 200th best player won't actually be that much better than the 1,000th player. It's really the few at the top that can do more than play their cards that will shine.

There is so much more play in this tournament than virtually any other tournament.

You can have a 100% ROI in the 180 man sit-no-gos online, right? Think about how much longer this 6000+ person field is.

Obviously these numbers are just made up off the top of my head, but does anyone want to say these specific numbers are way off?

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I think your equity multiples are way too high, but I don't have a principled basis on which to articulate my opposing theory. That said, I'm happy to book a bet on this for next year if we can work out details. Yes, the main is soft -- but I'm guessing that a pure pushbot won't be a 12:1 dog against Phil; and I think you underestimate the skill of the top half of the field.

Never let it be said that I won't give someone an opportunity to win their money back. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

edited to fix typo

[technologic]

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Nobody has over an 800% roi in the Main event IMO. It is easily the softest 10k of the year but 800% is too high.

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Doug Kim?

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dropped to 12000% this year... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[shaniac]

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If I had to guess, I would say Hellmuth has the highest ROI at roughly 1400%.

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I've not played with hellmuth and he gets a lot of trash on these boards -- what makes you say he's that good?

-g

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he's good.

1400% ROI still seems to defy any reasonable assumption of anyone's posisble ROI in this event. He should expect to make 140K every year he plays this thing? I don't think so.

[Revitox]

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Justin I challenge you to crossbook me against any of your picks giving me 3-1. If you decline I assume that means you are interested in buying my action at $266 for 1% and I'll be happy to sell you a nice chunk.

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Sir, please stop taunting ZeeJustin until you have at least 10% of his career tournament winnings.

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Do you mean one of ZeeJustins account or all together?