Razz-caution or coward?

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
* You're never much of a favorite on 3d, even against someone who will play 98A against you.

I'm sure most razz people knew this, but to me it is a surprise. Since most openers are going to have a wider range than 42A it suggests you can be pretty liberal calling opening raises, as long as you don't show your bad cards.


[/ QUOTE ] I read in one Razz book that any three-card 7 or better is worth jamming third no matter what your opponent has. I think that's extreme, but it supports the idea that with any three good cards and one opponent, you have as good a chance as anyone.

Now, I wonder what would happen if we presumed my opponent had one brick (9,T,J,Q,K) in the hole with his two good cards?

[Raxxmataxx]

[ QUOTE ]
I read in one Razz book that any three-card 7 or better is worth jamming third no matter what your opponent has. I think that's extreme, but it supports the idea that with any three good cards and one opponent, you have as good a chance as anyone.

[/ QUOTE ]Well, that's kind of the point. By jamming you've shown you hold exactly good cards for a pretty small gain in terms of big bets. It's also not going to be terribly hard to play against you on later streets if your hole cards can be limit to sevens or lower.

By calling you're range is much wider than his and you give much needed protection for your crappier hands you hope to suck out or steal with.

Note that I'm thinking specifically about playing against someone fairly early who raises. Against that range it's just not possible to have much of an edge with any hand. If you're against someone with a wider range you can actually get a lot more value.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I wonder what would happen if we presumed my opponent had one brick (9,T,J,Q,K) in the hole with his two good cards?

[/ QUOTE ]You have 2:1 in showdownequity, but your real equity isn't very near that since he's going to fold very quickly when your board is better than his.

I didn't bother to factor it in the simulations above since I didn't think it very likely (I've only played something like hundreds or in the low thousands of razz hands) and that it's a bit bothersome to include in the simulation.

It does seem a little too optimistic to assume that your opponents are going to be playing any two wheel cards with a brick in the hole.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now, I wonder what would happen if we presumed my opponent had one brick (9,T,J,Q,K) in the hole with his two good cards?

[/ QUOTE ]You have 2:1 in showdownequity, but your real equity isn't very near that since he's going to fold very quickly when your board is better than his.

[/ QUOTE ]
So, you don't play .50/1 at Stars, I take it? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] No, he isn't going to fold unless he gets something like KK on 4th and 5th. And the chance that he much looks at my board and not just his is kinda slim. If he "makes his hand" he is betting. Or calling.

[ QUOTE ]
It does seem a little too optimistic to assume that your opponents are going to be playing any two wheel cards with a brick in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ] It's standard in this game at this limit.

[Raxxmataxx]

If it's actually true that you can expect a random opponent to be playing any hands up to K75 or something I'm pretty sure you could value-raise your J on 4th.

Edit: Well, that's quite a bit of hyperbole, as it turns out.

But if we look at the same equities, Assuming he'll play K9A and all better hands, as I did above we get 62-42-54-74-66. Ie, you're significantly ahead on all streets except fourth, and betting the river is supereasy.

I'm still sceptical that's true though. Just because some people sometimes play wacky hands doesn't mean they do it everytime or that everybody does it. If people were that liberal the "players saw flop stat" should be pretty damn high. Just out of curiosity, what does it tend to be?