Derby Picks

[Thremp]

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lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well.

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As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option.

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No change to edgeaments?

[Holybull]

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lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well.

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As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option.

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LOL

[Holybull]

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In order of preference, Nobiz, Street Sense, CQ, Saturday & Scat Daddy; depending on how Pletcher is running at CD, I might move up Great Hunter and Hard Spun to super spots.

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Bishop, I really respect your view of this race.. I share almost the exact same opinion as you on most horses. The only exception is I'm throwing out Circular Quay. He just looks like a sprinter to me.


The hard part now is structuring bets. There should be big $$ to be made by throwing out Curlin and Circular Quay from the top 2 spots (if you're right).


Subject to change:
Street Sense is the most likely winner. I will bet enough on him to make it a profitable day if he wins.

Nobiz Like Shobiz is my key horse though. Hoping to get anywhere close to 10-1. Afraid it might be closer to 8-1.
Will bet him to win large and structure exactas and tris keying him and Street Sense.

Others to use in exotics. In order of preference:
Any Given Saturday, Tiago, Dominican and Scat Daddy.

Just hoping that the top 2 get fair posts.

[NajdorfDefense]

That's like 8 horses you like.
Any chance of narrowing it down or ranking them - after the posts, I mean.

[NajdorfDefense]

Well, Curlin, Great Hunter, and AGSaturday got screwed with their posts of 2, 20, and 18 [which is not horrific I guess.]

St Sense, Hard Spun, Tiago, Nobiz got great posts.

[Grasshopp3r]

Ship it on Bodog.

Will the Queen's hat be decorated with a feather?
yes -300
no +200

Obviously, it will have multiple feathers.

[rush66]

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Ship it on Bodog.

Will the Queen's hat be decorated with a feather?
yes -300
no +200

Obviously, it will have multiple feathers.

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How do we know this? Tradition or something...sorry if Im the only person who doesnt know.

[NajdorfDefense]

I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?

[Grasshopp3r]

Heck, I don't know. I just thought that it was amusing. You were being leveled. She was spotted this week not wearing a feathered hat, though.

[Bishop22]

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I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?

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Hard Spun is indeed #1 pedigree, only marginally ahead of Saturday and CC. HDW data won't be out til Friday I'll post in-depth and mention if there pedigree numbers differ from Tomlinson.

The thing about pedigree is it only really applies when horses haven't been through a given distance or situation. That kind of applies to the Derby since that last furlong is big, but I think the races they have run to this point are more important. I think you can project the final furlong with a combination of pace of the past races and the pedigree data. Personally I give up unless the data reveals something, no reason to blow hundreds on exotics this year, I'd rather attack the undercard.