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#21
06-18-2006, 12:38 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] One's range doesn't have to be AA+KK to make folding QQ okay. Anyway I dunno someone should do the math for me. [/ QUOTE ] Uh yeah, it does. Why else would you fold QQ here given the stacks? Push and let him call with AK or JJ or whatever. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure this type of player is not calling AK or JJ vs curtains push here. Basically pushing will never fold a better hand, and will RARELY, if ever, get called by a worse hand against this opponent. His range in this situation with a limper has to be tight, so if we make it TT+, AK (which has to be his biggest range here) we have 52% equity. Factor in a little fold equity, and it doesnt look too bad. I'm not much of a math person, but i am interested in the numbers. If i had time, i would run them myself, but i have a father...and its his day, so i'm gonna get on that. FWIW, 80-85% of the time i would push this and not be estatic about it. 15-20% i would cold call (something i started doing a bit more of before i switched back to ring games AGAIN) and get it in on most flops. [/ QUOTE ] ehh I dunno, they might call AK or JJ.....I might be giving them too much credit. 
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#22
06-18-2006, 01:12 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
His range definitely has to include AK+JJ+TT for me to push. I dont have enough info on that player to get a good feel of what to do, but I think folding isn't extraordinarily bad. In practice I generally shove then write notes on him depending on whether or not he calls or folds.
I also want to know if the MP1 limper is the type to occasionally limp AA/KK in this spot as well.
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#23
06-18-2006, 01:12 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
[ QUOTE ]
His range in this situation with a limper has to be tight, so if we make it TT+, AK (which has to be his biggest range here) we have 52% equity. Factor in a little fold equity, and it doesnt look too bad. [/ QUOTE ] I am not sure of the math, but I would imagine that if his range is JJ+ AK+ this is a fold. Obviously against an unknown this is a stupid easy push, but against this specific opponent it isn't that bad.
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#24
06-18-2006, 01:54 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
[ QUOTE ]
His range definitely has to include AK+JJ+TT for me to push. I dont have enough info on that player to get a good feel of what to do, but I think folding isn't extraordinarily bad. In practice I generally shove then write notes on him depending on whether or not he calls or folds. I also want to know if the MP1 limper is the type to occasionally limp AA/KK in this spot as well. [/ QUOTE ] Opponent is probably the MOST regular player at the $215s
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#25
06-18-2006, 02:01 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
[ QUOTE ]
lololol SMFofTS Im sure I folded. [/ QUOTE ] [censored] SMF lol...we play basically the same way. You are looking at QQ+ and AK or maybe even tighter. No joke but I would just muck it and pick a better spot. Anyone else and I push all-in.
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#26
06-18-2006, 02:05 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
With your image you think there is any chance he would ever fold KK to a push?
Probably not, but if so at some point you can get creative with an Ax hand.
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#27
06-18-2006, 02:05 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] lololol SMFofTS Im sure I folded. [/ QUOTE ] [censored] SMF lol...we play basically the same way. You are looking at QQ+ and AK or maybe even tighter. No joke but I would just muck it and pick a better spot. Anyone else and I push all-in. [/ QUOTE ] Ok so he is that tight....way to go me. But ok cmon he could obviously have JJ. How can he be tighter than AK and QQ here??
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#28
06-18-2006, 02:53 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
Maybe if he's a regular and you've only seen him raise in this situation with KK or AA and NOTHING ELSE... but come on, that's ridiculous. I can't imagine he'd be a winning player by only raising those two hands in that situation ever.
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#29
06-18-2006, 04:52 PM
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Re: curtains\' hand #11 (l3)
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe if he's a regular and you've only seen him raise in this situation with KK or AA and NOTHING ELSE... but come on, that's ridiculous. I can't imagine he'd be a winning player by only raising those two hands in that situation ever. [/ QUOTE ] I think it is the weirdishly large raise that is setting off alarm bells. The range is often QQ+, AK in such spots, making this a clear fold.
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