Why no FG attempt?

[crockpot]

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What if the Bears block it and run it back for a TD

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What if the running back fumbles on the 4th down play and they run it back for a TD?

I had no bets riding on the matter, I just thought it was a bad decision not to kick the FG. Being up 15 instead of 12 forces two miracle TDs AND a 2pt convert just to tie.

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- a fumble is much less likely than a blocked kick

- a fumble is much less likely to be returned for a TD than a blocked kick

- the colts' probability of winning was already so high that they should not take a chance that has a slight probability of going very wrong, with a relatively small reward if it works out.