Bar Stool Pundits Week 5

[27offsuit]

ooooooo, it's gonna be close.......

[React1oN]

grats BSP's on SF lol

[27offsuit]

wow

they were on the 20

[MyTurn2Raise]

BOOM!

BSPs are hot, hot, hot

[psuasskicker]

That's it... Next week I'm on the BSP picks for 10 units each.

- C -

[MyTurn2Raise]

that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick

[EvanJC]

ty for pick

[NajdorfDefense]

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that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick

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Scary but true I think.

[calmB4storm]

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that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick

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Scary but true I think.

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I had the unfortunate luck of discovering the Kelly criterion before learning about sample sizes. Some dude on the TheRX (Spreadbeater I believe) was hitting over 60% on his NBA picks over a sample size of (ZOMG!) ~100 games, so I decided to start tailing him. First night I tailed him he posted 5 picks (a lot for him), so I was pretty excited. I threw down 8% of my bankroll on each game (full kelly sizing for a 60% win rate, simultaneous wagers be damned). After a 1-4 night...good-bye 25% of my bankroll. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[PropPlayer]

Thanks as always Natedogg