Bankroll question re: moving up to 50NL

[Fiasco]

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20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

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How many hands would be enough to make an accurate statistical determination, in your opinion?

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50k hands is widely accepted.

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oh, if only there were some sort of mathematical way to determine what constitutes a sufficient sample size. That would be so great if we didnt just have to pull random arbitrary numbers like 50k hands out of our asses and we could factor in winrate and standard deviation.

Oh wait, we have those things. So why do I keep seeing posts about how anything less than one billion hands is probably short term luck?

Anyway OP, I plugged your numbers into a calculator using a SD of 33 ptbb/100 which is roughly what most of the players in this forum were doing (if yours is significantly higher then your variance may be a bit higher) and I found that your projected winrate is 1.43 ptbb/100 to 10.57 ptbb/100 @ the 95% confidence interval.

In other words, congrats, youre a winning player. Go ahead and move up.

[PokerFun007]

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20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

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How many hands would be enough to make an accurate statistical determination, in your opinion?

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50k hands is widely accepted.

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oh, if only there were some sort of mathematical way to determine what constitutes a sufficient sample size. That would be so great if we didnt just have to pull random arbitrary numbers like 50k hands out of our asses and we could factor in winrate and standard deviation.

Oh wait, we have those things. So why do I keep seeing posts about how anything less than one billion hands is probably short term luck?

Anyway OP, I plugged your numbers into a calculator using a SD of 33 ptbb/100 which is roughly what most of the players in this forum were doing (if yours is significantly higher then your variance may be a bit higher) and I found that your projected winrate is 1.43 ptbb/100 to 10.57 ptbb/100 @ the 95% confidence interval.

In other words, congrats, youre a winning player. Go ahead and move up.

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You are a stud! Thank you for doing this work for me!

I'm trying to become less results oriented as I'm realizing that the swings in NL are CRAZY!!! So, making a plan like this and sticking with it is important to me. I'm planning on taking a shot when I'm feeling optimal and good tables and still grinding out 25nl for insurance.

The bummer of this is that I was doing 25nl last night and quickly lost two buy ins to bad beats. Oh well, chalk it up to variance, dust off, re-buy, and continue.

[Mike Kelley]

Post Delorted for not making any sense whatsoever.

[Dennisa]

30 Hours of poker is less than 1 week. I would suggest 1 months play and at least 50K hands.

[PokerFun007]

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30 Hours of poker is less than 1 week. I would suggest 1 months play and at least 50K hands.

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Some of us have real jobs.

[gieffe]

just move up

there is no difference between 25 and 50NL in terms of players ability

[CalledDownLight]

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just move up

there is no difference between 25 and 50NL in terms of players ability

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people fold at nl50. Then they go back to never folding at nl100 and start playing back instead of calling down at nl200.

[Mike Kelley]

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just move up

there is no difference between 25 and 50NL in terms of players ability

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Not true.

[swainy]

i played 50nl previously for a few months (i only play 3 tables at most otherwise i find im playing like a TAGrobot, which i find turbo boring) then dropped down after a losing streak. I waited until i got back to 1000 before moving up again. Now that im back to 1200 i dont play nl25 anymore and am comfortable enough with losing a few buy ins.

[King Spew]

I have said it already in this thread.

Take shots, but remain grounded.