Cost-benefit analysis of going pro, please help (VERY LONG)

[dustyn]

Here's been my experience with poker. I am in grad school now but quit my job for a few months to take some time off and play poker professionally. I've also played "full time" for a month or two at a time and here are my observations. I play mid-high stakes NL currently, but switched from mid stakes limit about 8-9 months ago.

Poker is best when you have another commitment. You play better, you are less tilt prone and you don't let the game take over too much of your life. A full time job is obviously too much of one, since you're often too tired to play well and can't put in too many hours. I think this can be many things - a part time job, maybe school somewhere (that's not too time consuming) or something like that. Without something else to do, I find that you push yourself to play SO many hands that it becomes difficult to deal with long term.

I think if you go pro now you have to start your exit strategy the moment you begin your stint as a pro player. Not a 3-5 year exit strategy - a 1-2 year one. Immediately start devoting energy and some time to the next step in your career, or at the very latest start after 3-6 months.

Being a pro poker player is another job. Granted it pays well and gives you freedom, but it's still a job.

I am more bullish than most I think about the quality of games being OK in the middle term (5+ years) because there's still potential for growth internationally. Poker just started taking off in Germany for instance. Games like 3/6 and 5/10 NL are still pretty easy to beat for decent win rates if you aren't playing on FTP or PS (which you won't be). That said, long term the games will probably dry up, but in the short-middle term, I think you're fine in terms of profit potential over the next 5-8 years. The problem is if you do NOTHING but play poker, your competitive drive pushes you to move up and play games with higher, more profitable stakes. This is good and bad but I think it's challenging to move down when the games start to dry up at the higher levels, and it seems a lot of people's egos are too big to accept that.

I think trying to shoot for more than 25 hours a week as a poker pro is suicide for almost everyone. I know there are some people who can do it but I'm curious how many years they last. Forty hours is just too much IMO - you might be able to get away with it at the 3/6 or 5/10 level for a while, but if you're playing 200-250 hours of mid stakes poker a month, eventually you'll want to move up. At the higher limits, the games become more stressful and I think you have to play fewer hours to keep your sanity.

Obviously I don't have a clear answer for you. I think if you have something you can do on the side or on your own relatively soon it's a good risk to take. If you don't and have no options outside of poker in terms of self-employment or a future business, it's a much larger risk.

[NickMPK]

It seems like it should be possible in your field to get a job where you work less than full time. For example, political polling generally works on a two year-cycle, so perhaps there is a job out there that would allow you to take generous unpaid leave when off-cycle to pursue poker. That way, you could be playing poker full time part of the year and still have a steady, productive, fulfilling job for the rest of it. Also, if you are willing to get a little more experience, you could probably develop your own clients, and only work when your specific clients needed you. Political consulting seems like a pretty good field for someone who wants to do something else half of the time.

[sethypooh21]

[ QUOTE ]
It’s more of the general office setting that is kind of eating my soul, which makes me think that moving laterally to another job isn’t really going to solve anything.

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A few things.

1) Tough [censored] - you just got out of college so of course the office setting sucks.

2) Office culture varies, a different job may well have a better office vibe.

3) Related to 1, this too shall pass, you'll get used to it (which will mean your soul has died, muahahahahahaha....)

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]


2) Office culture varies, a different job may well have a better office vibe.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is definitely true. I have a great time at work at my current job, it's all ppl around my age and we laugh our asses off constantly and fly rc helicopters and [censored].

[pete fabrizio]

Gild, it sounds to me like you are in a good position to succeed of you decide to make the leap. And perhaps more importantly, you should be in good shape to jump back if it turns out it isn't for you.

[lucksack]

Seriously, I really doubt you would be playing 40 hours (or near) a week even if you go pro. I definitely haven't, and I'm not the only one. Of course you MIGHT be different.

Lack of social interaction is the biggest problem IMO, I really don't think it would be a good decision if you don't have a ton of friends.

No contribution to society might start feeling like a real problem after you quit your job even if it feels laughable now (although I don't agree with "poker players are leeches").

[AJackson]

I am surprised at the consensus.

You're a smart guy and a proven winner, why not take a risk?

This wouldn't be my advice to most people, but I think you're smart enough to manage your time and money.

Maybe it doesn't work out. No big deal. A year or 18 months can be put off to taking time off to travel. If you're really concerned about a resume gap, get your MBA.

A lot of people seem to think you should work a regular job, like that is some sort of gateway to long term success. There are so many ways to make money, I just can't see the justification of being a wage slave for half your waking hours. If you 'must' be doing something productive, find something where you can make your own hours and be your own boss.

Every self made wealthy guy I know did it the same way. They found a way to make a solid chunk of change in their early 20's (mostly through some sort of new construction or remodeling) and then moved on to something like property development, stocks or oil. A couple of hundred K can be leveraged into some serious holdings.

You have that opportunity to create that core life time bank roll in the next couple of years. Will this opportunity exist in 5 years? I have my doubts.

What is the worst case? You spend 2 years trying something, have less money than when you started and have to go work for the man. With your skills and background you'd still be ahead of 98% of the population. Losing a few years to something that doesn't work out seems like a lot now, but in the big picture it's nothing.

I say, take a chance.

[JoseRijo]

You're freaking 22 with 100K in the bank. Go tell the man to take his job and shove it.

I wasted my twenties listening to a voice inside my head with advice very similar to DDY's. You have lots of time to work on your "career".

[DING-DONG YO]

[ QUOTE ]
You're freaking 22 with 100K in the bank. Go tell the man to take his job and shove it.

I wasted my twenties listening to a voice inside my head with advice very similar to DDY's. You have lots of time to work on your "career".

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell? I'm not telling him not to go pro. Just that there are large potential downsides and time off can be damaging to a long-term career.

That's not to say the risk shouldn't be taken, merely that all perspectives should be considered. I knew guys that took those risks and things didn't turn out for the better with all of them. Being a poker pro and creating a nest egg with which to spring to Buffetdom (and if you think I'm talking about Jimmy, then you should go back to school and NOT go pro) sounds sexy and romantic, but the reality is that it's a huge risk. Not one that should be dismissed, but one that should be considered carefully, which is what he is doing.

Knowing what I know about Gild, he seems extremely sharp and disciplined and would make the most out of going pro.

Bottom line is anyone considering going pro should take a long, hard cold look at themselves before doing so.

[morphball]

[ QUOTE ]
You're freaking 22 with 100K in the bank. Go tell the man to take his job and shove it.

I wasted my twenties listening to a voice inside my head with advice very similar to DDY's. You have lots of time to work on your "career".

[/ QUOTE ]

This is spot on in my opinion. Do it! Not meant to single any one out here at all, but from my experiences in life, the people who advise you not to take chances and pursue your dreams are usually afraid to take those chances themselves. They secretly want you to remain in their boat of mediocrity and misery so that they do not have see you succeed, so that they do not have to be envious of your success, and so that they will not have to live with their own cowardice.

As to poker drying up, maybe the donkeykong days of 2004 are over, but poker has been around a long time, and even if it dries up to 1/2 or 1/3 of what it is now, which I doubt, it will still be a cornicopia compared to what it was 20 years ago.