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#21
07-23-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: Fire turn?
[ QUOTE ]
It's an interesting dilemma. I agree that if it gets checked around you have almost no chance of winning, and as I stated in my 1st response I definitely don't want to give up on this pot. But I think you have to balance this with how often your turn bet will run into a raise, which I think will be quite frequently here. So the question is, if you check and it gets checked around, that sucks, but it's still not a catastrophe, since you might still have quite a few cards to win (and there will be times when you'll have benefited from the free card). On the other hand, if there's a bet, this might open the door for a pretty convincing semi-bluff c/r. So I'm still not convinced which is best. I'd have to go back and rely on what the dynamics of the game were so far, what my image was, etc., etc. [/ QUOTE ] What hands can you have here that you would c/r the turn with in hero's position? It is unlikely anyone has anything to bet with so it getting checked through is way too likely. Additionally, of the two opponents, Hoss is much more likey to have a pair than the BB since it makes some sense to only call the flop with a PP in Hoss' position (in which case bet/three bet would be much better if Hero had a big hand). If Hoss is the one hero would expect to bet, it doesnt make sense to c/r with a big hand and muscle BB out when he might have called one bet. Given that, it is unlikey the c/r will ever get Hoss to fold anything (on the occasions he has something). So, I dont think a c/r has a lot of fold equity here (on the rare occasion you don't whiff). I also do not think you are getting raised that frequently here when hero leads. BB definitely should not have anything and Hoss only occasionally should. 
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#22
07-23-2007, 04:33 PM
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Re: Fire turn?
For the people that have said to fire turn and river I am curious if you think a c/r is a better play if we are going to turn our hand into a bluff? I think betting the river as a bluff is close to hopeless while c/r is very believable.
I would just bet turn and check river probably. My reason for betting the turn is not very complicated. We have the best hand a fair amount of the time and hands with 6-10 outs may fold. Unfortunately we probably have to call a raise, especially from button and then fold river UI I guess.
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#23
07-23-2007, 05:03 PM
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Re: Fire turn?
[ QUOTE ]
also, it's really not unlikely that hoss just calls the flop with a jack here, and its probably 100% likely that he'd just call the flop with any pair lower than that [/ QUOTE ] whats the probability that hoss raises the turn if the BB folds? thats what concerned me when i read this
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#24
07-23-2007, 05:10 PM
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Re: Fire turn?
[ QUOTE ]
1k/2k on FTP. BN is Hoss. He seemed tilted earlier is a bit calmer now......he opens on the button, he steals so much that my QTo 3bet from the SB is mandatory. BB calls. Hes not great and the only reason Im playing this high. He ccs the sb quite a lot and is passive postflop somewhat, that said hes not openlimping or doing retarded [censored] every hand, he has some idea how to play and would probably beat 15/30 limit. Flop is J83r I fire and they both call. Turn is a Jack. Action on me, who likes to bet this? What is our river plan?? [/ QUOTE ] bet. that turn card changes nothing, and you gotta call a bet. I doubt you're getting raised here, and hoss may give it up seeing that you are willing to bet into 2 players.
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#27
07-23-2007, 05:42 PM
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Re: Fire turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] why doubt we're getting raised? [/ QUOTE ] i think any hand that can raise the turn raises the flop. [/ QUOTE ] i disagree. strongly too. any bp/2nd pair might raise now
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#28
07-23-2007, 09:28 PM
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Re: Fire turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why doubt we're getting raised? [/ QUOTE ] i think any hand that can raise the turn raises the flop. [/ QUOTE ] i disagree. strongly too. any bp/2nd pair might raise now [/ QUOTE ] i disagree also.. you'd have to take a vice grip and rip A high from hoss' hands to get him to fold if the BB folds
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