15/30 66 hand

[cartman]

I don't understand why this turn is so bad. Aggressive guys are checkraising this flop with a flush draw nearly always. He could have a 9 or a Q, but I think I have to value bet because the most likely hand for him in my opinion is Ace high. Im getting called or checkraised by any diamond and probably called by Ace high no diamond.

[SparkyDog]

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I don't understand why this turn is so bad. Aggressive guys are checkraising this flop with a flush draw nearly always. He could have a 9 or a Q, but I think I have to value bet because the most likely hand for him in my opinion is Ace high. Im getting called or checkraised by any diamond and probably called by Ace high no diamond.

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Yep. I don't think checking behind here is good. First, his range is heavy with mediocre ace highs. He almost certainly doesn't have a flush draw, and I think it's more likely that he'll c/r bluff the turn than he will bluff the river if you check behind. So you're ahead a lot, when you're not you probably have outs, and he may launch an expensive bluff in a small pot from time to time.

[helpmeout]

why would an agro guy automatically raise this flop with a flushdraw or overcards?

look at the board, for him it is much better to wait for the turn regardless because I'm not folding on that flop

if he is looking for me to fold A high then he must wait for the turn because most A high hands are calling down a flop raise

if the turn card is scary for me and i check behind he pretty much knows what i have so he at least gets a freecard which is of some value to him and can also valuebet pretty easily, so waiting for the turn is a far better play for him

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
why would an agro guy automatically raise this flop with a flushdraw or overcards?

look at the board, for him it is much better to wait for the turn regardless because I'm not folding on that flop

if he is looking for me to fold A high then he must wait for the turn because most A high hands are calling down a flop raise

if the turn card is scary for me and i check behind he pretty much knows what i have so he at least gets a freecard which is of some value to him and can also valuebet pretty easily, so waiting for the turn is a far better play for him

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I agree. I don't know why everyone is saying that all aggro guys CR this flop. If I'm against someone tightish, I CR the turn here lots. CRing the flop on this board here seems to scream 'bluff.'

[kiddo]

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The pot is small and there is a decent chance hero is the one who is drawing. A LAG just calling a paired flop is somewhat suspicious. Also the turn card sucks. There is nothing wrong with inducing a bluff here.

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I agree with this. Its not like he always will checkraise if he got nothing on this turn, he will normally fold. But if we check and give him 3 outs with his A5o he will "always" bet river (at least more often then he cr turn). And if he is ahead, well, we do a nice check with our fine outs.

[cartman]

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why would an agro guy automatically raise this flop with a flushdraw or overcards?

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I understand your points, but I'm not sure he does. Also, the chance of me bet/folding the turn vs an aggressive 38/20 when I have showdown value and the flop was 993 is near zero.