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#21
03-18-2006, 08:39 AM
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Re: Hungarian/Martian/Manhattan theory
[ QUOTE ]
You have been "fooled by randomness". [/ QUOTE ] Correct. The OP mentioned something that seemed like an extreme longshot. My comments reduced it to a medium longshot. And MidGe is correct in pointing out that a medium longshot is only special if the observation criteria were set out in advance, ie "let's watch Hungary and see what happens" rather than let's watch 100 countries at the same time, look at the most extreme events among the 100 and pretend they were from a random country that we decided to watch. 
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#22
03-18-2006, 10:41 AM
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Re: Hungarian/Martian/Manhattan theory
I really would like to understand how this grouping could be considered arbitrary. Arbitrary must mean something else for me than it does for you. I'm interested in understanding this but I don't want to read a book to do so.
i consider the term to mean "without rationale" Or "meaningless" or "random". My understanding of this word is an amalgamation of these terms. It seems that this grouping is not arbitrary because it was not a random sampling that yielded this concentration of intellectual capability. The capability was noticed, then the fact that many happened to come form one specific area. The grouping is not in my mind arbitrary, this grouping was formed by reality. No one said, let's go see if Hungary has smart people! The smart people came here and showed us what they could do, no one arbitrarily chose Hungary. Cambraceres
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#23
03-18-2006, 02:34 PM
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Re: Hungarian/Martian/Manhattan theory
[ QUOTE ]
is only special if the observation criteria were set out in advance, ie "let's watch Hungary and see what happens" rather than let's watch 100 countries at the same time, look at the most extreme events among the 100 and pretend they were from a random country that we decided to watch. [/ QUOTE ] So if you find a dead person lying face down on the ground with a knife sticking out of his back in a city of thousands, then you must conclude the cause of his death was accidental, unless you decided before his death to track what happens to him? Just an example to illustrate your logic and where it leads...
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#24
03-18-2006, 11:21 PM
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Re: Hungarian/Martian/Manhattan theory
[ QUOTE ]
So if you find a dead person lying face down on the ground with a knife sticking out of his back in a city of thousands, then you must conclude the cause of his death was accidental, unless you decided before his death to track what happens to him? Just an example to illustrate your logic and where it leads... [/ QUOTE ] Your analogy is definitely faulty... It would be like saying the spot where the body was found had some remakable characteristic, above just being where the body was found. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#25
03-21-2006, 04:22 AM
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Re: Hungarian/Martian/Manhattan theory
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So if you find a dead person lying face down on the ground with a knife sticking out of his back in a city of thousands, then you must conclude the cause of his death was accidental, unless you decided before his death to track what happens to him? Just an example to illustrate your logic and where it leads... [/ QUOTE ] Your analogy is definitely faulty... It would be like saying the spot where the body was found had some remakable characteristic, above just being where the body was found. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'll agree that the above quote seems to be an invalid analogy, but still do not understand your meaning in the other earlier posts.
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