UFC 63 9/23/06

[Aicirt]

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I really dont see how BJ Penn is going to win this fight.

If youve seen the last fight, it wasnt so much Penn beating Hughes, but Hughes beating himself. Penn got the takedown early basically because Hughes took a horrible halfass shot that just put himself on his back. Then when Penn mounted Hughes, he rolled to his stomach right away which is the worst thing that he couldve done and would never do now.

Hughes has gotten so much better since that fight. Hughes' striking continues to get better and better as hes been training in the best camp in the UFC...whereas Penn has taken most of the time since then off. When they are on their feet, Hughes should get the best of Penn.

Penn is a great jiu-jitsu guy, but we saw Matt Hughes out jiu-jitsu Royce Gracie. Put that on top of the fact that I cant imagine Penn taking Hughes down, and I just dont see an aspect of the fight where the advantage would go to Penn.

And lets not forget that Penn took up this fight on short notice. And that Hughes is avenging a loss which will give him a mental edge and extra fire to train harder.

Hughes -206 seems way off to me and an extremely valuable bet.

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Well, while I think Hughes is definately the favorite...I think to say that you can't see how Penn can win this fight is clearly a lack of imagination.

Penn only recently came back to the UFC, but he's fought in the interim (since the last Hughes matchup).

Penn has the EXACT skills needed to beat Hughes (one of the few guys in the world). If you say Penn can't beat Hughes, then you are basically saying no one in the world can beat Hughes (which isn't a horrible statement, but i think it's possible).

Penn has great wrestling skills. He can fight a takedown as good as just about anyone. It takes a lot of effort to get him down.

Next, Penn is a jui-jitsu prodigy. To suggest that Hughes can hang with him in this discipline is naive. I think Hughes has VERY good submissions, but he's not as good as Penn.

Next, Penn is better of the feet. Plain and simple. I don't see how this can be argued. Hughes is competent on his feet...but he's not nearly as skilled as Penn.

And finally...Penn doesn't get finished. He's fought great fighters, and I don't ever remember seeing him get knocked out, or submitted. I saw him lose a decision to Pulver, I saw him lose a decision to Pierre...but he was never close to getting finished.

This fight could go 5 rounds. Hughes isn't use to going 5 rounds. I know Hughes is in great shape...but going 5 rounds is hard for anyone. In the 5th round, could Penn make something happen?

I don't know. Penn will, without doubt, have to be at the top of his game. Most importantly, he will have to be in great shape. If he does that, I have no doubt in my mind he has the tools to win the fight.

However, Hughes is always capable of taking the guy down, and throwing elbows for 5 rounds. If Penn isn't ready, I have no doubt this is how it will go. Regardless...this is NOT a mis-match.

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I disagree that Penn has the exact tools to beat Hughes. In fact Id go as far to say that Hughes has the exact tools to beat a guy like Penn. Hughes is going to be able to put this fight exactly where he wants it.

Penn is scrappy by all means, but by no means is he a great wrestler. He squirms his hips around well when a takedown attempt is being shot on him, but a decent wrester will be able to control his hips. GSP had 4 takedown attempts and he missed the first one because he didnt control Penn's hips. He corrected that error and got the next 3 rather easilly. Hughes' wrestling skills are far superior to GSP's and hes much stronger than GSP.

In my opinion, in order to be able to beat Hughes more than 1/3 of the time, you need to be very well rounded obviously, but then also have one of two things: be a better wrestler than Hughes or have 1 punch knockout power like Liddell.

Im not saying Hughes is better at jiu-jitsu than Penn. That would be rediculous obviously. What I am saying is that Hughes is good enough to stay out of Penn's submission attempts most of the time.

When I said that Hughes should get the best of Penn on their feet, I didnt mean that Hughes would out strike Penn. (Although I can understand thats how it seemed like I meant). What I really mean is that Hughes will be able to dictate what happens on the feet. Hughes has gotten very good at closing the gap between himself and his opponent without putting himself at much risk. Once he gets close, he just manhandles his opponents and gets takedowns like its nothing...often times picking them up and slamming them up against the fence. Penn has a very active guard and if he gets put up against the fence it should limit what Penn can do from his guard. This is what GSP did to Penn...he closed the gap, pushed him to the fence and got his takedowns. I fully expect Hughes to do the exact same thing.

If this fight goes 5 rounds, I really dont see how anyone could argue that would be advantagous to Penn. With a full amount of training, he faded in the 2nd round against GSP. He took this fight on short notice. If this goes to a decision then its undoubtedly in Hughes' favor.

And Id like to reiterate that the fact that Hughes is getting a chance to avenge a loss is a HUGE factor. Hughes is not going to take this fight lightly.

I think Penn is going to need Hughes to make a big mistake in order to win this. But I think we will see the best Matt Hughes weve ever seen, and I think that such a mistake is highly unlikely.

Obviously Im interested in discussing any alternative viewpoints.

[jmillerdls]

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I think a healthy BJ Penn is one of, if not the singular best best active fighter in MMA, pound for pound.

I also think he obviously matches up very well with Matt Hughes: Hughes only losses in his entire career are against fighters with strong jiu-jitsu, and especially so against fighters with strong jiu-jitsu who also have good striking.

I see Penn having a pretty significant advantage on the feet, and he certainly has the edge on the ground. Hughes will have the edge in takedowns and in strength.

I see this fight as either a Hughes win by decision or a Penn submission. Unless it turns out that Penn's conditioning isn't where its reported to be at and he gasses early, or someone gets hurt.

Those saying Penn gassed vs GSP are overlooking the reports that Penn was injured during the fight but didn't want to drop that as an excuse which is why you never heard it out of his mouth only some of his training partners after the fight.

I see Hughes coming out thinking he has the edge on the feet, trying to stand and strike. And quickly realizing he's getting the worst of it on the feet. Very similar to the Gracie fight - Hughes came out looking to strike on the feet and realized Gracie's long limbs allowed him to get the better of it with leg kicks on the feet, so he quickly changed it up and took Gracie down. Penn's striking is far superior to Hughes that we've seen, and Hughes will get picked apart on the feet. So Hughes is forced to take Penn down, in which case he tries to put Penn against the fence and drop hammerfists and elbows. Standard gameplan. Except Penn is by far the most dangerous fighter from his back in the UFC, with the possible exception of Dean Lister. Hughes knows this, and isn't going to open up like crazy and expose himself. So its going to be a highly technical war on the ground, i think. And probably several restarts along the way.

So either Penn can pull out a submission along the way, or Hughes wins the decision due to the scoring of multiple takedowns along the way. Or there's always a possibility Penn KO's him on the feet, or a slight possiblity Hughes does the same thing to Penn.

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lol, basically my argument exactly.

[Performify]

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When was the last time BJ looked really impressive for more than 5 minutes in a fight? Its going on 4 years now.

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This I definitely don't agree with.

Penn's victory over Hughes was Jan 2004, that was two years and nine months ago.

Penn went the distance with Rodrigo Gracie in Rumble on the Rock 6 in November 2004, winning a UD.

Penn fought a very impressive 15 minutes with 205-pound Ryoto Machida in K1 in March 2005, losing a close UD to a much larger fighter. And if you got to see the fight - it was a lot of standup, with Penn easily trading with Machida on the feet and even getting the best of it time and time again. If you're just a UFC fan and not that familiar with K1, Machida is an absolute beast with an 8-0 and is the only person to knock out Rich Franklin (December 2003, Franklin's only loss).

Penn then went the distance with Renzo Gracie in K1 in the end of July 2005, winning a UD.

Penn then walked in to the UFC and demolished GSP for the first round, aggrivated a knee injury suffered during training, and went in to a shell for the last two rounds and lost a close decision that in my opinion was mis-scored.

Here's a highlight clip from Penn that includes some of his work some people may not have seen before (stuff outside the UFC):

http://youtube.com/watch?v=CFkUdpVd-HU

[Performify]

If you haven't seen it: good article "Hughes-Penn II: Too Close to Call" By Michael DiSanto
http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news...l&gid=3275

And here's Stephen Quadros' take:
http://www.budovideos.com/shop/custo....php?pageid=78

Also, one point I failed to make above: Penn / GSP was Penn's first fight back down at 170 after fighting his last three fights heavier. This fight he didn't have to lose any weight for, which should also help in the conditioning edge even regardless if you completely disregard the under-reported injury during the GSP fight.

Am I saying Penn should be even money or a favorite here? Not going to happen: the belt around Hughes' waist and his record, and Penn's loss to GSP, all factor in to the line. But there's a reason the MMA cappers threw out -105 as a starting line: because I think that's a lot closer to where this line ultimately should be. In fact I'd see anything greater than Penn +125 as having value.

But knowing UFC betting patterns, I knew the Hughes line was going to skyrocket when they opened it correctly (for actual chance of winning, but incorrectly for public perception) close and recommended that everyone grab Hughes to set up the arbitrage opportunity.

now we're in great shape: we can take a freeroll on the Penn upset that I believe has tremendous value.

[Performify]

One more BJ Penn video:

if you want to see the Penn vs Rodgrio Gracie fight (November 2004) you can do so for free on Rumblevision just by signing up for a free account:
http://www.rumbleworld.tv/rvision_ne...hp?Media_ID=48

[Aicirt]

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If you haven't seen it: good article "Hughes-Penn II: Too Close to Call" By Michael DiSanto
http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news...l&gid=3275

And here's Stephen Quadros' take:
http://www.budovideos.com/shop/custo....php?pageid=78

Also, one point I failed to make above: Penn / GSP was Penn's first fight back down at 170 after fighting his last three fights heavier. This fight he didn't have to lose any weight for, which should also help in the conditioning edge even regardless if you completely disregard the under-reported injury during the GSP fight.

Am I saying Penn should be even money or a favorite here? Not going to happen: the belt around Hughes' waist and his record, and Penn's loss to GSP, all factor in to the line. But there's a reason the MMA cappers threw out -105 as a starting line: because I think that's a lot closer to where this line ultimately should be. In fact I'd see anything greater than Penn +125 as having value.

But knowing UFC betting patterns, I knew the Hughes line was going to skyrocket when they opened it correctly (for actual chance of winning, but incorrectly for public perception) close and recommended that everyone grab Hughes to set up the arbitrage opportunity.

now we're in great shape: we can take a freeroll on the Penn upset that I believe has tremendous value.

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Thanks for the links. They were interesting reads.

A couple thoughts on that first article...

He gives the wrestling edge as a huge advantage to Hughes as he should. Then he gives the ground fighting game to Penn even after he admits that its somewhat unlikely that Penn is going to be able to attempt submissions from the bottom. My question is if he cant take him down and hes going to have to be conservative on his back, then how does he figure that Penn will pull off a submission? Penn definately has the advantage on the ground against most opponents. However with Hughes, I just dont think we see Penn on top of Hughes enough to swing the ground game as an advantage to Penn.

Secondly, I think its rediculous to give the clinch advantage to Penn. That is where Hughes' strentgh comes into play and very rarely does Hughes get in a clinch situation that he doesnt finish with a takedown. I dont see Penn having enough time to do anything considerable from the clinch.

thoughts?

[Performify]

If you want to see a good example of how Penn can and will work from the guard, watch Penn vs Gomi:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=AgHN_yYYYzY

Great transitions, a lot of Penn on his back against a guy known for his ground and pound. Gomi is obviously no where near as strong as Hughes (he's 154 pounds) but is the same style of fighter, a great wrestler who controls on the ground and wins via strikes on the ground.

Penn will definitely be able to work submissions from the ground from his back. Omaplata or Triangle are both very real threats, even more so with Penn's incredible flexibilty. The question will be if its early can Hughes power out of them - or slam his way out of them in the case of a triangle.

[Recliner]

Performify,

Thanks for the write up on his last opponets. I was not very familiar with them and I wasn't sure if Penn was fighting heavier or fighting heavier opponents. Though, I think Renzo Gracie is a human punching bag, and shouldn't count for much.

Hughes hasn't had a real fight in 17 months and even then Frank Trigg wan't a very good match up to test Hughes, especially against BJJ.

What concerns me the most is that Hughes is going to have around 15 or more pounds on Penn and he is much stronger. He is going to be able to easily take down Penn if he wants to. UFC overvalues takedowns so Hughes doesn't have to stay very active to win this fight by a decision while putting himself at a minimal amount of risk.

If Penn shows up healthly and if he is in good condition and if he shows up mentally prepared he should win 40-45% of the time?

I'm highly confident Matt shows up for this fight ready to go 5 rounds. Because of the GSP fight and the late notice to Penn you have to doubt at what level he is going to come in at.

Anyone know how Hughes has been training with? I'd like to get an idea on how much BJJ defense he has been working on.

[jmillerdls]

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Performify,

Thanks for the write up on his last opponets. I was not very familiar with them and I wasn't sure if Penn was fighting heavier or fighting heavier opponents. Though, I think Renzo Gracie is a human punching bag, and shouldn't count for much.

Hughes hasn't had a real fight in 17 months and even then Frank Trigg wan't a very good match up to test Hughes, especially against BJJ.

What concerns me the most is that Hughes is going to have around 15 or more pounds on Penn and he is much stronger. He is going to be able to easily take down Penn if he wants to. UFC overvalues takedowns so Hughes doesn't have to stay very active to win this fight by a decision while putting himself at a minimal amount of risk.

If Penn shows up healthly and if he is in good condition and if he shows up mentally prepared he should win 40-45% of the time?

I'm highly confident Matt shows up for this fight ready to go 5 rounds. Because of the GSP fight and the late notice to Penn you have to doubt at what level he is going to come in at.

Anyone know how Hughes has been training with? I'd like to get an idea on how much BJJ defense he has been working on.

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I would think this many years we would clearly recognize that superior technique trumps superior strength. No one in the world has better technique than Penn at 170...simple as that. This will always give him a chance against the guy that is the most dominant wrestler/GNP in history.

[jmillerdls]

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If you haven't seen it: good article "Hughes-Penn II: Too Close to Call" By Michael DiSanto
http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news...l&gid=3275

And here's Stephen Quadros' take:
http://www.budovideos.com/shop/custo....php?pageid=78

Also, one point I failed to make above: Penn / GSP was Penn's first fight back down at 170 after fighting his last three fights heavier. This fight he didn't have to lose any weight for, which should also help in the conditioning edge even regardless if you completely disregard the under-reported injury during the GSP fight.

Am I saying Penn should be even money or a favorite here? Not going to happen: the belt around Hughes' waist and his record, and Penn's loss to GSP, all factor in to the line. But there's a reason the MMA cappers threw out -105 as a starting line: because I think that's a lot closer to where this line ultimately should be. In fact I'd see anything greater than Penn +125 as having value.

But knowing UFC betting patterns, I knew the Hughes line was going to skyrocket when they opened it correctly (for actual chance of winning, but incorrectly for public perception) close and recommended that everyone grab Hughes to set up the arbitrage opportunity.

now we're in great shape: we can take a freeroll on the Penn upset that I believe has tremendous value.

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Thanks for the links. They were interesting reads.

A couple thoughts on that first article...

He gives the wrestling edge as a huge advantage to Hughes as he should. Then he gives the ground fighting game to Penn even after he admits that its somewhat unlikely that Penn is going to be able to attempt submissions from the bottom. My question is if he cant take him down and hes going to have to be conservative on his back, then how does he figure that Penn will pull off a submission? Penn definately has the advantage on the ground against most opponents. However with Hughes, I just dont think we see Penn on top of Hughes enough to swing the ground game as an advantage to Penn.

Secondly, I think its rediculous to give the clinch advantage to Penn. That is where Hughes' strentgh comes into play and very rarely does Hughes get in a clinch situation that he doesnt finish with a takedown. I dont see Penn having enough time to do anything considerable from the clinch.

thoughts?

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Well, I think Quadros was alluding to the fact that Hughes may get stunned by Penn in the standup game, and then Penn would end up on top...and find a submission from there (basically what happened last time).

In a 5 round fight, I don't think that is a horrible assumption.

Penn is outclassed in wrestling, but he is still and excellent wrestler that is hard to take down. Hughes will not just get him to the ground with ease in all 5 rounds. I don't think it is assuming too much that Penn is going to land some hard strikes on Hughes before it gets to the ground in at least some of those rounds.

I also don't think it's out of the question that Hughes gets submitted from the top if he gets at all careless with those elbows. We've seen Hughes shut down from the top (against Charuto Verrisimo), when he was worried about submissions. in that fight, Verrisimo didn't offer anything on the feet, so Hughes was in no danger of anything but submissions...that won't be the case against Penn. If he shuts down against Penn, it will get stood up (the last thing he wants). So, I think Hughes is in danger in every position, ever second of the fight...which is rarely the case in a Hughes fight, and is what makes this matchup so compelling.