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#21
10-05-2007, 05:46 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I'd like to offer 3:2 odds on the Cowboys over the Pats if anyone's interested. I definitely think they win more than 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I will offer this as well if someone wants to bet some more money on it. 
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#22
10-05-2007, 06:01 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
pokerfink,
You think the dallas game is a tossup? I disagree fully. At least 60% shot.
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#23
10-05-2007, 06:14 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who said 0% is moron. How many times do really rare things in sports have to happen before you realize how dumb it is to think something is still impossible to happen. [/ QUOTE ] You said Boston was 8:1 to win the NBA Championship
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#24
10-05-2007, 06:19 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
[ QUOTE ]
pokerfink, You think the dallas game is a tossup? I disagree fully. At least 60% shot. [/ QUOTE ] Not really I was just throwing some really rough numbers out there.
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#25
10-05-2007, 06:46 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
Pats, < 5%.
A little math - if their remaining schedule includes 4 games they have an 80% chance to win, 4 a 70% chance, and 4 a 60% chance, it's 1.2%. My intuition says that maybe half of nfl seasons will have a team with a > 1% (preseason) chance of going undefeated, and most seasons will have an undefeated team a few games in with a 3-4% chance, but rarely will it be > 5%. Even a team with a 90% chance in half its games, 75% in the other half will only go undefeated 4% of the time. Eventually it will happen, but it'll never be close to a likely outcome. I just picked the win probability numbers out of the air; it would be interesting to see the percentage chance predicted by money lines.
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#26
10-05-2007, 06:51 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hmm, I'd like to offer 3:2 odds on the Cowboys over the Pats if anyone's interested. I definitely think they win more than 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Pats will be -5 or so [/ QUOTE ] roughly a 0% chance that it will be higher than pats-3, unless something crazy happens this week, most likely will be a pk (or somewhere within the 3 either way)
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#27
10-05-2007, 06:52 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
I see someone else already threw some guess %'s out there; seems pretty clear we're in the 1-3% ballpark.
Another interesting number crunch: If you assume that in any given season, there's a 3% chance that someone will go undefeated (for this season, this would roughly be like saying 2% pats, 1% colts), there's a >50% chance someone will go undefeated in the next 23 years. If you bump it to 5% it's 14 years. I think it's pretty clear it will eventually happen. Given enough time, anything with a nonzero probability will probably happen.
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#28
10-05-2007, 06:56 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who said 0% is moron. How many times do really rare things in sports have to happen before you realize how dumb it is to think something is still impossible to happen. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe they're called rare for a reason? When the Colts started 13-0 in 2005, they had San Diego (9-4 at that point), @Seattle (12-2) and Arizona (5-10) left on their schedule. And you remember the discussion at that time. The discussion was the likelihood that they would lose one game to either San Diego or Seattle was very likely. Regardless if Dungy benched them or not. In fact, the game against SD (remember, at home) Peyton went 26/45 for 336, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Sure enough, they lost to both San Diego and Seattle. The year before was Peyton's record-breaking year (which, oh look, discussions are starting about record-breaking possibilities for the Pats) and they had off-games. (Remember when Jax went to Ind and beat them?) Peyton was 27/39 with 3 TDs, 0 INTs. Colts lose 27-24. The likelihood that all facets of the game will be clicking for the Pats the entire season will be very close to impossible. If the Pats start 10-0, visualize the discussion going into that week. They'd have Phi, @Bal, Pit, NYJ, Mia, and @NYG coming off playing 4 out of their previous 5 on the road. Phi, @Bal, Pit and @NYG at the end of the season given how teams tend to look now are going to be their toughest games. 2 on the road, 2 at home. Nothing is impossible. But neither is a team with a losing record having an out-of-their-freaking-mind game against an undefeated team (Mia and NYJ prob) I'd say the probability a losing team beating an undefeated team is > the probability that a team goes undefeated. I stand by my statement, at this point in the season: 0%. Done.
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#30
10-05-2007, 06:58 PM
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Re: Likelihood of undefeated Pats
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hmm, I'd like to offer 3:2 odds on the Cowboys over the Pats if anyone's interested. I definitely think they win more than 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Pats will be -5 or so [/ QUOTE ] roughly a 0% chance that it will be higher than pats-3, unless something crazy happens this week, most likely will be a pk (or somewhere within the 3 either way) [/ QUOTE ] bet you on the line? if I can find 2 sites where it's more than -3 at any point, you owe me $50. otherwise you win
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