Fold this AK PF?

[Deadnutz]

I think a stop and go is awful here, since villian plays perfectly against it given his reraising range.

If an A or K flops and you move all-in, he folds 10's-QQ's
and calls with AA, KK, AK, and AQ. So AQ is the only spot
you are making any more money.

If no A or K flops and you move all-in, he calls with atleast an overpair to board. You only get AK, AQ to fold
and given 2.5 to 1 pot odds, you might even get called by AK
since he's 3 to 1 against QQ or less- thus splitting the pot.

Stop and go works best when you can make a better hand fold
on the flop that wouldn't fold to a pre-flop AI. That's not the case here.

[RichC.]

I dont think a SnGo is very good here as ~40% of my stack is in the pot if i just call, which basically pot commits me and i still need to improve my hand. I dont think I have any FE given villains raise compared to his stack size.

[Airharley]

Lloyd,

When you're doing those calculations, do you ever take into account the percentage of time that villian is on a complete bluff? If so, what percentage do you use?

[bobneptune]

[ QUOTE ]
You are right. The hands he is behind is AA KK and flipping against the rest getttin odds>

[/ QUOTE ]


and , of course you holding AK severely reduces the chance of AA or KK being out there.

i guess, the real question is ,do you want to flip for your life here, or can you find better places to invest your chips.

[uclabruinz]

Approaching bubble territory is a great time to take a bit of a gamble and look to have a good sized stack on the bubble. I shove this every time and don't think twice about it.

[AceLuby]

If he said he had QQ he probably had AQ...

[RichC.]

[ QUOTE ]
Approaching bubble territory is a great time to take a bit of a gamble and look to have a good sized stack on the bubble. I shove this every time and don't think twice about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know if I agree with you here, with so many bad players still at the table it just seems to make more sense to find better spots. I do agree that taking the flip has its merits and against certain players, shoving AJo is even correct. I mean, I called a reraise that put me all-in by another guy who had shown down a lot of garbage with AQs, i won but he had a decent hand for a change. I think that table dynamics come in huge here too and really makes shoving a bad play a small % of the time. Not sure, maybe I am missing something that someone else can point out.

[MLG]

I dont hate the fold. Also, UCLA, if I played like you I would often fold AK in that spot. However, given my image im pretty much always jamming and hating it.

[UtzChips]

[ QUOTE ]
..............So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop...........So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have..........

[/ QUOTE ]

AA=3 KK=3 QQ=6 JJ=6 TT=6 AK=9 AQ=12 : Total 45 hands


[ QUOTE ]
and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs).

[/ QUOTE ]

1/2 of TT = 3 1/2 of JJ = 3 & AQ = 12 Total hands:18
(You did say Villian would fold AQ all the time)

So the Hero will win Preflop 40% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

So Hero wins 40% of the time Preflop
Wins 28.13% of the time Postflop
Draws 13.01% of the time Postflop

Stands behind the rail 45.85% of the 40% of the time that Villian calls: .40 * 45.85 = 18% of the time.

We can stop right there. 88% chance he will still be in the game with either an almost doubled stack, splitting the pot, or winning the pot preflop.

That's too good to be true! All In Baby!

That is, if Villian will fold JJ,TT 1/2 the time and AQ all the time.........

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

[/ QUOTE ]Not from a pot odds perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course, but that wasn't what he said.