KQo - AQ3

[JJack]

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Looks like WA/WB textbook example to me. Either he got 2 outs or I got 2 outs. If he got 2 outs we want to encourage him. If not, we want to loose less.

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Can u explain what are those 2 outs?
I see more outs.

[jeanbaptiste36]

I used your range, the one you gave in the original post, and checked all the cases. You are either ahead or you have 2 outs. All the cards you can improve with improves him more, except 2 queens. Your range is a bit tight though. Just because he's TAG doesn't mean he knows about position.

[jeanbaptiste36]

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b/f flop.

As played raise/fold to 3bet and see if you can improve on turn.

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This is terrible!

This is such a standard WA/WB spot IMO

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77+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+
KJs - ahead, 3 combos
KQs - You split, 2 combos
ATs - 5 outs with 4 combos
AJ - 5 outs with 12 combos
AQ - dead with 6 combos
AK - 2 outs with 6 combos
77-JJ - ahead with 60 combos
QQ, dead with 1 combo
KK, 2 outs with 3 combos


16 cases with few or no outs.
16 cases with 5 outs
63 cases ahead, with 2 outs for villain.
6 splits

Still WA/WB? I don't know if he would bet with all that.

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[Maxinho]

there is a program that calculates the equity with the range of hand you say villain can have?
or a web site

[Buzz-cp]

google pokerstove

[steve1127]

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yikes. very bad.

first if the PFR is a known nit (i know a few in my live game) i instafold preflop.

if i played this hand i C/C the whole way. i might fold the river if i know that the PFR wouldnt bet it w/o the ace. at no point would i be doing any betting or raising.

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I have a hard time seeing how you could get that read from the PFR with only 100 hands. If I call the turn, not sure how I can fold the river.

[FineStyle]

I would bet the flop and fold on a raise.
As played I would call down, if nothing spectacular happens.

[JJack]

I put this flop to pokerstove ...

57,420 games 0.005 secs 11,484,000 games/sec

Board: 3d Qd As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.765% 28.51% 05.26% 16370 3018.00 { KcQh }
Hand 1: 66.235% 60.98% 05.26% 35014 3018.00 { TT+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

At this flop we win 28% times (equity is 33,7% but i use only wins to make odds) so its about 3:1 odds.

Now we have 4.5SB+bet. If we make assumption that villian will bet all streets then he put 5sb+4sb= 4,5BB
And we need put 1sb+2sb+2sb=2,5BB
So pot odds are 4,5:2,5= 1,8 : 1

So if i only use at this hand math rules so it should be easy fold at flop [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Any sugestion about this simulation ?

[KitCloudkicker]

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yikes. very bad.

first if the PFR is a known nit (i know a few in my live game) i instafold preflop.

if i played this hand i C/C the whole way. i might fold the river if i know that the PFR wouldnt bet it w/o the ace. at no point would i be doing any betting or raising.

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I have a hard time seeing how you could get that read from the PFR with only 100 hands. If I call the turn, not sure how I can fold the river.

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i never said i got that read. i just that if i did have that read (which is true for many of my live opponents) thats what i would do.

I assume you're familiar with this line:

UTG raises. Hero 3 bets with TT-KK. UTG calls.

Flop Axx. UTG Checks. Hero bets. UTG calls.

Turn x. UTG Checks. Hero bets. UTG Calls.

River blank x. UTG Checks. Hero checks.

Of course, the presence of the Q makes it more unlikely villian will bet the turn with TT, JJ (etc) but in many cases he will....and check the river, where if villain has AA/AK/AQ villain will bet the river.

The point is, in poker 101 we learn to bet the flop and turn with non-top pair hands and then check behind the river. Now in poker 201...learn how to take advantage of others using it :-)

[steve1127]

Fair enough.