Maybe interesting/maybe std flop peel and river bet

[rubbrband]

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So mr I cant be read decides he is tired of beeing threebet and goes out of line with 77 and check calls this river?

edit: What I mean is, if he bet I'd call every day of the week. Now I still check.

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I agree he could have 77 just as easily as AK.

[danzasmack]

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So mr I cant be read decides he is tired of beeing threebet and goes out of line with 77 and check calls this river?

edit: What I mean is, if he bet I'd call every day of the week. Now I still check.

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This HAS to be a mistake against this guy - did you read the OP? He has called with 9 hi? He is NOT folding anything.

[Victor]

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So mr I cant be read decides he is tired of beeing threebet and goes out of line with 77 and check calls this river?

edit: What I mean is, if he bet I'd call every day of the week. Now I still check.

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I agree he could have 77 just as easily as AK.

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he could also have chit like a7o or 89s. hes an idiot. we are getting 10.5:1. we have 2 backdoor draws and 2 high cards. this is a big pot.

on the river he checks bc he is scared which indicates to me a weak pair. or maybe q or kk. he will obv bet the river with an ace or better. i think he will also bluff with his unpaired garbage hands so i would call a river bet.

so he has a lower pair than aces like always here and i dont think idiots who are likely tilting from everyone taking shots at them fold pairs in big pots on the river.

[disjunction]

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So you think he probably has a lower than J pp? I wouldn't assume he has a lower pocket pair but maybe add it to his range. AA-55 AK AQ KQ the better the hand the more likely because he capped. Does this seem like a better range for this guy?

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Heh, I suck at putting bad players on ranges, so my only intended contribution to this thread was the (obvious, I guess) point that the answers become obvious once you pick that range. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

The range you picked is about 36 combinations of hands you beat and 45 of hands you don't, but AK as well as the big hands get discounted because of the postflop and river play, which probably brings the river back to a bet and makes the flop peel fine.

As for the range itself, if pressed I guess I agree that his preflop range is pretty wide, and includes all those pairs plus suited aces plus other connectors if you include psychology. If his PFR is 25% or higher, he could have refused to 4-bet several times just because his 2-bet range is so wide. Yet another issue I suck at -- I saw a couple of posts implying that his lack of capping makes him more likely to cap. If we assume this, then there's no prior data that wouldn't lead us to assign him a wide range! Which may be right, I dunno.

It's tough to weigh the psychological information that he must be dying to cap now against the numerical information we got from the fact that he passed up the 4-bet several times.

[Rudis]

I have changed my mind. I bet.
BUT only because he is as bad as described. I still think that there is a contradiction between the he will cap anything now thought and the rivercheck. I also think that this is a very marginal bet, and I'd hate it if he folds so I cant see his hand.

Still, your points are good, and especially the fact that he is a whacko.

[Apanage]

Good value bet for villain or for Hero?

[Leader]

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Did I miss out on the read? He has never capped pf?

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Just to clarify, he's been 3-bet 6 or 7 times in the last 70ish hands, including on the last hand by me, and has yet to cap.

Also, villain seemed pretty straight forward. I haven't seen anything that would indicate he would c/r AK/AQ/AJ here.

edit: Another thing, the 9-high river call wasn't a one time occurrence. He's also called with J and Q high when it's obvious he has no chance.

[duckman]

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Did I miss out on the read? He has never capped pf?

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Just to clarify, he's been 3-bet 6 or 7 times in the last 70ish hands, including on the last hand by me, and has yet to cap.

Also, villain seemed pretty straight forward. I haven't seen anything that would indicate he would c/r AK/AQ/AJ here.

edit: Another thing, the 9-high river call wasn't a one time occurrence. He's also called with J and Q high when it's obvious he has no chance.

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You had a specific read that said he would call down light. When he checks after betting 2 times into a preflop 3 bet he wants a cheap showdown. Did you have any sense of the previous 2 bets what they meant? Would he bet draws or low PP this way? I probably check behind assuming he has a queen of KK.

[Leader]

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Did I miss out on the read? He has never capped pf?

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Just to clarify, he's been 3-bet 6 or 7 times in the last 70ish hands, including on the last hand by me, and has yet to cap.

Also, villain seemed pretty straight forward. I haven't seen anything that would indicate he would c/r AK/AQ/AJ here.

edit: Another thing, the 9-high river call wasn't a one time occurrence. He's also called with J and Q high when it's obvious he has no chance.

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You had a specific read that said he would call down light. When he checks after betting 2 times into a preflop 3 bet he wants a cheap showdown. Did you have any sense of the previous 2 bets what they meant?

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Probably that he has two cards he would cap with. I haven't seen him give up on any flops or turns.