Could you fold AA?

[z28dreams]

The real problem is there aren't many combo draws that are available here - 43clubs, but most people with his stats will fold to an EP raise.

You can limit his range based on preflop action if you want, the the bet-3bet line is NOT common from a TAG with just a flush draw. I think he has QJ/KJ/AJ here almost never if your read is right.

Possible hands that villain would 3bet:
22,55,JJ
AKc - maybe
43c - oesfd
5c4c - pair + fd, might call this preflop - other pair+fd options aren't reasonable

pair+flush draw combos are also very unlikely because of the low cards on the board (he's not gonna play

With a 17% PFR, it's also unlikely that he cold called preflop with QQ-AA here.

The real bitch is that because of your raise you're getting 2:1 on this call.

All sets plus 4c3c,4c5c, and AKc
Hand 0: 78.649% 78.61% 00.04% 9339 4.50 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 21.351% 21.31% 00.04% 2532 4.50 { AhAs }

Some more crazy draws thrown in:

Hand 0: 68.482% 68.40% 00.09% 10834 13.50 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, KcQc, QcTc, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 31.518% 31.43% 00.09% 4979 13.50 { AhAs }

So, even with some very unlikely draws thrown in, we're still a 68:31 dog, not even good enough to beat the 2:1 we're being given.

This looks like a fold to me.

[Keitan]

I think this is an easy fold

[Hail Eris]

Fwiw, I play 23/17/2 and the range I stoved is the exact range I would have here. Big suited broadways are 3bet or fold, and if I wanted to take a flop and play back, I would much rather do it with a small SC then Axs. Even if I did make it here with a naked flush draw, I probably wouldn't play it that way without history.

Of course, different people with the same preflop stats might play a different postflop game. But if your villain is trying to felt a naked flush draw here, you'd expect his AF to be higher, wouldn't you?

[Kingz22]

I say he has KK or QQ. Call.
In the words of Sammy Farha,
You have to gamble to win, boys and girls [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[terp]

what the goddamn hell. i keep opening threads in this forum and keep getting tilted.

you'll make more money if you never fold AA and keep getting people to shove flops when you hold it