NL25 - OESFD on flop, just get the money in ASAP? - Page 3

QTip · #21 06-19-2007, 04:55 PM

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As to the coinflip example, if someone put in $10 and said how much will I wager, this is all based on the type of person I am. If I don't feel like watching my money bounce up and down for a couple pennies here and there, I won't even consider putting $9.50 in.

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You should never think this way. You must take any chance you have when you're ahead.

Are you familiar with rollete? You must have heard the house always win. And it always win solely for the reason there are 37 numbers and they pay 35 to 1 when you win, and it should be 36 to 1. This slight difference make them winners and the gamblers losers.

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I know exactly what you're saying here; however, there are plenty of situations where I'm happy to avoid a very thin edge. The house would love a razor thin edge. They get to flip a million coins every single day. Compare this to say someone who is going to flip for their life savings of $1 million in order to win $2k and they only get one shot...or maybe even 3 shots or 10 shots. I wouldn't take any of those options. Why? Because I just don't have the option of letting the long run catch up and pay me if my luck happens to suck during the initial stretch. Now, tell me I can flip 200k times, and now we have a deal.

Sure, we have bankrolls in order to accomodate for these types of things. However, take for example a live player. He gets in maybe 30 hands an hour. If I'm a live pro, I'm passing up these small edges with frequency because I'll have large swings in any direction and i'd be looking to keep that to a minimum. This can spring out to be very +EV as far as state of mind for future play and so forth.

Jeff76 · #22 06-19-2007, 05:04 PM

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What I'd like to discuss tho is our thought process with the initial flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]Villain doesn't always have a hand he's willing to get it all in with, so we have FE. Plus, sometimes villain just calls and we'll a) get a free card or b) hit and extract more because we build a big pot on the flop.

QTip · #23 06-19-2007, 05:07 PM

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What I'd like to discuss tho is our thought process with the initial flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]Villain doesn't always have a hand he's willing to get it all in with, so we have FE. Plus, sometimes villain just calls and we'll a) get a free card or b) hit and extract more because we build a big pot on the flop.

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Jeff:

I agree with all your thoughts, and would be fine if those were the reasons that we were raising. I'm not sure if a psr is the best or not for that tho. I would tend to make it smaller if I were more inclined towards the free card option, and I would be here.

The reason I'm bringing it up is that the initial responses to this OP seemed to indicate that the plan was to always reraise until all in or to get villain to push. My contention is that this is not good.

MarcusT · #24 06-19-2007, 05:11 PM

I'd say you are playing too tight with this state of mind and people are buying your pots rather easily. Do you play small pairs? By your reasoning you shouldn't be and that's a leak imho.

QTip · #25 06-19-2007, 06:08 PM

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I'd say you are playing too tight with this state of mind and people are buying your pots rather easily. Do you play small pairs? By your reasoning you shouldn't be and that's a leak imho.

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There's a huge difference between playing small pairs and getting 100bbs in with 51% equity.

MarcusT · #26 06-19-2007, 06:08 PM

Well, maybe to clarify my point consider this: you'll be playing thousands of hands in a short period of time. Imagine we are going to play the coinflip game for as many hands. If we play 10k hands, that means your EV=10k * $0,5= $5000. That's what you're not earning by not playing the coinflip.

Jeff76 · #27 06-19-2007, 06:15 PM

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The reason I'm bringing it up is that the initial responses to this OP seemed to indicate that the plan was to always reraise until all in or to get villain to push. My contention is that this is not good.

[/ QUOTE ]The thing is, once villain announces he has a real hand, we'd rather go ahead and get it in now while he can't price us out than on the turn when he can. Also, we should be playing sets the same way, which makes it more difficult for villain to play profitably against our range (since he'll either be flipping with us or a large dog).

CalledDownLight · #28 06-19-2007, 06:20 PM

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...I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.
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I'm not sure, but I thought the needed equity should be measured against the total potsize after calling: 8.05/21.35 = 37.4%, which makes it a call.

Am I wrong?

J

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Turms out you're right. So, calling his all-in raise will profit us about 9bb over the long haul.

What I'd like to discuss tho is our thought process with the initial flop raise.

OP, why did you raise and why did you chose the amount you did?

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Just think of the initial flop raise as a value raise. Hero is a favorite over the range villian is betting on the flop and thus is raising for value. He is calling the shove because he likely has the best hand (the best hand is not the one currently ahead, but the one that will win the most often).

CalledDownLight · #29 06-19-2007, 06:24 PM

I get this in for 200 BB all day and am very happy about it. Just because its close does not mean you should ever turn down the opportunity if its +EV. Even if this is not +EV, which it will be with pot odds once we know he has a big hand, it is most certainly +EV for metagame (at least at higher levels). If you won't take slight edges then maybe poker or any form of gambling is not for you. After all, we are fighting for a few BB every hundred hands.

QTip · #30 06-19-2007, 06:33 PM

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I'd say you are playing too tight with this state of mind and people are buying your pots rather easily. Do you play small pairs? By your reasoning you shouldn't be and that's a leak imho.

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I must not be communicating well here Marcus, because we're not on the same page. I understand that small EV situations add up over time. The thing I'm saying is that there are plenty of valid reasons some players have to avoid small EV situations when a lot of money is on the line.

If you were a live pro who played 240 hands a day or so. How often do you think you'd get in a flip situation for 200bbs? Once every two months - which I think is more often than what realty would bring? What if you lost 10 of those in a row (which would be no big deal)? That would be a span of 20 months losing some serious money in order to win a small amount. Many players would chose to pass there.