Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play

[DVaut1]

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If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

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Wrong. BB has an incentive to allow you to lose the tournament. He has enough chips to make this happen with reasonable hands.

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I'm not quite sure I understand; if I push, BB is always making a mistake (i.e., -$EV play) by calling. I admit I made a much bigger -$EV play by pushing, but BB is still making a mistake.

What essentially happened is the BB and I handed a wheel-barrel full of $EV over to the 4 other players, particularly the short-stack. But I'm not sure what the BB's 'incentive' is here, though.

[Black Aces 518]

If he's like 99% of sat players, his "incentive" is OOOH King Jack, SHINY!!!!

[Nez477]

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If he's like 99% of sat players, his "incentive" is OOOH King Jack, SHINY!!!!

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lol, this made me laugh.

In response to you Vaut, we I guess don't know (yet) that he doesn't understand satellite bubbles. We NOW know it because of the K-J call, so I guess we don't know this obviously.

And, to stress Betgos statement, calling with AA here would probably be a small mistake.

Brad

[Mench]

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If he's like 99% of sat players, his "incentive" is OOOH King Jack, SHINY!!!!

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awesome. this explains bad plays so well in one sentence.

[DVaut1]

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If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

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Minraising just feels like a chip leak to me, particularly if he's not playing correctly. He's got a monster stack and he's almost certainly calling with any 2, which means I'm now building a pot out of position with a medicore hand that I'll almost certainly have to lay down on 85%+ of flops when I don't spike an 8 (and even on some when I do but the flop comes three suited and/or is highly coordinated, etc.).

If he's playing correctly, it doesn't seem to matter if I min-raise or push, right? And if he's playing incorrectly, minraising just allows him the chance to play perfectly.

[olliejen]

your play seems overly aggressive given the read you've provided, yours, BB's and UTG's stacks and the current blinds.

If you think he's the type that will just sit back and fold his way into one of the top 5 spots, a 3-4X raise will likely fold 90% of what an all-in raise will. If he re-raises you, you're likely crushed & if he calls you're probably in a coinflip/unpaired overcards situation you would be in anyways, except you have chips behind.

[sunrise]

I dont see how BB calling with AA, or even KK in this spot is a small mistake.

I mean if he loses he is down to 13.5K in chips and is still CL and can still most likely fold to a seat. If he wins the tournament if over and he can go eat dinner or go to sleep or what have you rather than grind it out for another hour or so.

I do agree the call with KJ o/s is pretty bad, as is the open push with 88. With such a stack and on the bubble I would be inclined to complete or make a small raise, depending on how BB has been playing throughout. THen I would hope to check it down with BB, or value bet if I hit a set. If BB shows aggression with overcards on the board I am gone.
I think there's a decent chance that with the stack you have you can sit back and wait and see what happens. Usually I find someone else makes a stupid move and the tournament ends. Either that or the shorty pushes and someone else makes a bad call...or a good call...and busts him.

[DVaut1]

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I dont see how BB calling with AA, or even KK in this spot is a small mistake.

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Because it's -$EV for him. He is guaranteed to win a seat now. Calling, even with AA, lowers his equity, even if only a small amount. Being the CL with 22k in this spot is vastly different from being the CL with 13k.

[NakedNoggin]

I don't think either of you made a mistake. I think a fair large raise would have given you the information you needed but I don't think you could have folded. The BB play was a little bit on the loose side but he had the chips and a chance to take someone out. I would prefer to make this type of call with at least an ace but still not terrible.

[adanthar]

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I don't think either of you made a mistake. I think a fair large raise would have given you the information you needed

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Who cares about getting information, it's a satellite and there's a short stack that you aren't/if BB reraises your large raise all in and flips over 32o you should still fold. "Information" has nothing to do with it.

The right play (since, hey, you have a pair and aren't totally guaranteed a spot yet) is to make a small raise if the BB is correctly autofolding or to complete if he isn't. If he raises or pushes, fine, you lost an extra 200 chips. If not, you check it down or minbet or whatever and hopefully win. It's not really relevant as long as the fewest possible chips go in the pot.